TRANSACTIONS OF THE AMERICAN CLIMATOLOGICAL ASSOCIATION
CONTENTS CLIMATE CHANGE OVERVIEW AND IMPLICATIONS FOR WILDLIFE 1 CHAPTER 1 CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS EFFECT ON SPECIES RANGE BOUNDARIES A CASE STUDY OF THE SACHEM SKIPPER BUTTERFLY ATALOPEDES CAMPESTRIS 57 CHAPTER 2 BUTTERFLIES AS MODEL SYSTEMS FOR UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTING CLIMATE CHANGE 93 CHAPTER 3 HISTORICAL STUDIES OF SPECIES RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE PROMISES AND PITFALLS 127 CHAPTER 4 COMMUNITY RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE LINKS BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND KEYSTONE PREDATION IN A ROCKY INTERTIDAL SYSTEM 165 CHAPTER 5 TESTING CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTIONS WITH THE SUBALPINE SPECIES DELPHINIUM NUTTALLIANUM 201 CHAPTER 6 MODELING POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF VEGETATION IN THE UNITED STATES WITH A PROBABILISTIC BIOGEOGRAPHY APPROACH 251 CHAPTER 7 CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE SUSCEPTIBILITY OF U S ECOSYSTEMS TO BIOLOGICAL INVASIONS TWO CASES OF EXPECTED RANGE EXPANSION 277 CHAPTER 8 CLIMATE CHANGE WHITEBARK PINE AND GRIZZLY BEARS IN THE GREATER YELLOWSTONE ECOSYSTEM 343 CLIMATE CHANGE OVERVIEW AND IMPLICATIONS FOR WILDLIFE SYNERGISMS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ECOLOGY THE EARTH S CLIMATE IS VASTLY DIFFERENT NOW FROM WHAT IT WAS 100 MILLION YEARS AGO WHEN DINOSAURS ROAMED THE PLANET AND TROPICAL PLANTS THRIVED CLOSER TO THE POLES IT IS DIFFERENT FROM WHAT IT WAS ONLY 20 000 YEARS AGO WHEN ICE SHEETS COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTH ERN HEMISPHERE ALTHOUGH THE EARTH S CLIMATE WILL SURELY CONTINUE TO CHANGE CLIMATIC CHANGES IN THE DISTANT PAST WERE DRIVEN BY NAT URAL CAUSES SUCH AS VARIATIONS IN THE EARTH S ORBIT OR THE CARBON DIOXIDE CO2 CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE FUTURE CLIMATIC CHANGES HOWEVER WILL PROBABLY HAVE ANOTHER SOURCE AS WELL HUMAN ACTIVI TIES HUMANS CANNOT DIRECTLY RIVAL THE POWER OF NATURAL FORCES DRI VING THE CLIMATE FOR EXAMPLE THE IMMENSE ENERGY INPUT TO THE EARTH FROM THE SUN THAT POWERS THE CLIMATE WE CAN HOWEVER INDI RECTLY ALTER THE NATURAL FLOWS OF ENERGY ENOUGH TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT CLIMATIC CHANGES THE BEST KNOWN WAY PEOPLE COULD INADVERTENTLY MODIFY CLIMATE IS BY ENHANCING THE NATURAL CAPACITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO TRAP RADI ANT HEAT NEAR THE EARTH S SURFACE THE SO CALLED GREENHOUSE EFFECT THIS NATURAL PHENOMENON ALLOWS SOLAR ENERGY THAT REACHES THE EARTH S SURFACE TO WARM THE CLIMATE GASES IN THE ATMOSPHERE SUCH 1 AS WATER VAPOR AND CO2 HOWEVER TRAP A LARGE FRACTION OF LONG WAVE LENGTH RADIANT ENERGY CALLED TERRESTRIAL INFRARED RADIATION NEAR THE EARTH S SURFACE THIS CAUSES THE NATURAL GREENHOUSE EFFECT TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME 33 C 60 F OF SURFACE WARMING THUS SEEM INGLY SMALL HUMAN INDUCED CHANGES TO THE NATURAL GREENHOUSE GASES ARE TYPICALLY PROJECTED TO RESULT IN A GLOBAL WARMING OF ABOUT 1 5 C TO 6 C IN THE 21ST CENTURY IPCC 1990 1996A 2001A THE LATTER REFERENCE SUGGESTING THE UPPER RANGE LIMIT OF NEARLY 6 C WARMING BY 2100 THIS RANGE ESPECIALLY IF BEYOND 2 3 C IPCC 2001B WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN ECOLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WHICH ARE WHY CLIMATIC CONSIDERATIONS ARE FUNDAMENTAL IN THE DIS CUSSION OF POSSIBLE ECOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES THAT MAY INVOLVE WILDLIFE WE MAY ALREADY BE FEELING THE CLIMATIC EFFECTS OF HAVING DIS TURBED THE ATMOSPHERE WITH GASES SUCH AS CO2 MANY ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH HUMAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT HAVE CHANGED OUR PHYSICAL AND CHEMICAL ENVIRONMENT IN WAYS THAT MODIFY NATURAL RESOURCES WHEN THESE CHANGES SUCH AS BURNING FOSSIL FUELS THAT RELEASE CO2 OR USING LAND FOR AGRICULTURE OR URBANIZATION AND THEREBY CAUSING DEFORESTATION BECOME LARGE ENOUGH SIGNIFICANT GLOBAL WORLDWIDE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED SUCH MODIFICATIONS CAN DISTURB THE NATURAL FLOWS OF ENERGY IN EARTH SYSTEMS AND THUS CAN FORCE CLIMATIC CHANGES THESE DISTURBANCES ARE ALSO KNOWN AS GLOBAL CHANGE FORCINGS E G MELTED SEA ICE WE NEED QUANTITATIVE EVALUA TIONS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR HUMAN ACTIVITIES TO EFFECT PHYSICAL ECOLOGI CAL CHANGES AROUND THE GLOBE SUCH EVALUATIONS ARE CENTRAL TO POTEN TIAL POLICY RESPONSES TO MITIGATE SUCH GLOBAL CHANGES SCHNEIDER 1990 IPCC 1996B C IPCC 2001B C SYNERGISMS THE SYNERGISTIC OR COMBINED EFFECTS OF HABITAT FRAGMENTATION AND CLI MATE CHANGE REPRESENT ONE OF THE MOST POTENTIALLY SERIOUS GLOBAL CHANGE PROBLEMS PEOPLE DESTROY OR DIVIDE NATURAL HABITATS FOR FARM LAND SETTLEMENTS MINES OR OTHER DEVELOPMENTAL ACTIVITIES CHANGES IN CLIMATE WILL FORCE INDIVIDUAL SPECIES OF PLANTS AND ANIMALS TO ADJUST IF THEY CAN AS THEY HAVE IN THE PAST DURING THE ICE AGE MANY SPECIES SURVIVED BY MIGRATING TO APPROPRIATE HABITATS TODAY SUCH MIGRATIONS WOULD BE MUCH MORE DIFFICULT BECAUSE THEY WOULD ENTAIL MIGRATION ACROSS FREEWAYS AGRICULTURAL ZONES INDUSTRIAL PARKS MILITARY BASES TRANSACTIONS OF THE AMERICAN CLIMATOLOGICAL ASSOCIATION 2 AND CITIES OF THE 21ST CENTURY AN EVEN FURTHER COMPLICATION ARISES WITH THE IMPOSITION OF THE DIRECT EFFECTS OF CHANGES IN CO2 WHICH CAN CHANGE TERRESTRIAL AND MARINE PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY AS WELL AS ALTER THE COMPETITIVE RELATIONS AMONG PHOTOSYNTHESIZING ORGANISMS THE KIRTLAND S WARBLER IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN PROVIDES ONE EXAMPLE OF SYNGERGISM THE SPECIES IS RESTRICTED TO A NARROW AREA OF JACK PINES THAT GROW IN SANDY SOIL BOTKIN ET AL 1991 FOREST GAP MODELS OF GROWTH AND DECLINE OF JACK PINES INDICATE THAT THIS TREE WILL MOVE NORTH WITH WARMING BUT THE WARBLER IS NOT LIKELY TO SUR VIVE THE TRANSITION THIS BIRD NESTS ON THE GROUND UNDER RELATIVELY YOUNG PINES AND THE SOIL TO THE NORTH IS NOT GENERALLY SANDY ENOUGH TO ALLOW SUFFICIENT DRAINAGE FOR SUCCESSFUL FLEDGING OF YOUNG COHN 1989 CONSEQUENTLY GLOBAL WARMING COULD WELL DOOM THE WARBLER TO EXTINCTION IN 30 TO 60 YEARS THIS POTENTIAL FOR EXTINCTION INDICATES HOW THE ALREADY HIGH RATE OF EXTINCTIONS AROUND THE WORLD COULD BE EXACERBATED BY CLIMATIC CHANGES OCCURRING MORE RAPIDLY THAN SPECIES CAN ADAPT SEE PIMM 1991 PETERS AND LOVEJOY 1992 WIL SON 1992 THE SYNERGISM QUESTION RAISES MANAGEMENT PROBLEMS OF ANTICI PATING AND RESPONDING TO GLOBAL CHANGE RISK FOR EXAMPLE ONE CON TROVERSIAL MANAGEMENT PLAN WOULD BE TO SET UP INTERCONNECTED NATURE RESERVES THAT RUN NORTH TO SOUTH OR FROM LOWER TO HIGHER ELE VATION WHICH COULD REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SPECIES BEING DRI VEN TO EXTINCTION IN THE EVENT OF CLIMATE CHANGES ALTERNATIVELY WE COULD SIMPLY LET THE REMNANTS OF RELATIVELY IMMOBILE WILDLIFE AND NATURAL PLANT COMMUNITIES REMAIN IN EXISTING ISOLATED RESERVES AND PARKS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME EXTIRPATIONS IF WE DO OPT FOR MORE ENVIRONMENTAL SAFEGUARDS BY INTERCONNECTING OUR PARKS THE QUES TION THEN BECOMES HOW WE INTERCONNECT THE NATURE RESERVES PRIORI TIES MUST BE SET AND MONEY MADE AVAILABLE FOR CONSTRUCTING NATURAL CORRIDORS THROUGH WHICH SPECIES CAN TRAVEL FOR EXAMPLE ELEVATED SECTIONS OF HIGHWAYS MAY BE NEEDED TO ALLOW FOR MIGRATION ROUTES SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS DONE FOR THE CARIBOU IN THE ARCTIC WHEN THE ALASKAN PIPELINE WAS BUILT TO EXAMINE SUCH QUESTIONS IN SCIENTIFIC AND ECONOMIC DETAIL A MULTIDISCIPLINARY EXAMINATION OF VARIOUS ASPECTS OF CLIMATOLOGY ECONOMICS AND ECOLOGY IS NEEDED HERE WE BEGIN WITH A BACKGROUND DISCUSSION OF CLIMATIC HISTORY PROCESSES MODELING AND VALIDATION AS A PRELUDE TO FOCUSING ON ECOLOGICAL PROCESSES WHICH NEED TO BE EXAMINED IN ORDER TO PROJECT POSSIBLE SYNERGISMS AMONG ECOLOGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE TRANSACTIONS OF THE AMERICAN CLIMATOLOGICAL ASSOCIATION 3