THE COAL FUTURE: ECONOMIC & TECHNOLOGICAL ANALYSIS TO SECURE FUEL SUPPLY INDEPENDENCE
INTRODUCTION IN WHICH THE PRESIDENT SEEKS AN AUDIENCE WITH THE KING?? 1 1? EMPIRE AND THE POLITICS OF INFORMATION?? 14 2? ENGINEERING ECONOMY? ? 39 3? THE ECONOMY OF TIME AND SPACE?? 67 4? THE SLAVERY SOLUTION? ? 92 5? THE DEBATE OVER COALING STATIONS?? 125 6? INVENTING LOGISTICS? ? 164 CONCLUSION ENERGY AND SECURITY IN PERSPECTIVE? ? 214 CHRONOLOGICAL LISTING OF CITED CONGRESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS FROM THE UNITED STATES SERIAL SET?? 229 NOTES? ? 235 CONTENTS IN WHICH THE PRESIDENT SEEKS AN AUDIENCE WITH THE KING WAR DEMONSTRATES THAT ADEQUACY OF OIL SUPPLY IS AN IMPORTANT ELEMENT IN MILITARY STRATEGY AND MAY MEAN DEFEAT OR VICTORY IN BATTLES AND CAMPAIGNS HERBERT FEIS PETROLEUM AND AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY WHEN THEY CAME TO WRITE THEIR ACCOUNTS OF FRANKLIN ROO SE VELT S HISTORIC MEET ING WITH SAUDI KING ABDEL AZIZ BIN ABDEL RAHMAN AL FAISAL AL SAUD ON FEB RUARY 14 1945 AMERICAN WITNESSES EMPHASIZED THE EXTRAORDINARY IT WAS A TRIP TO EXOTIC PARTS OF THE WORLD WITH EXOTIC PEOPLE NOTED ROO SE VELT S SECRET SER VICE DETAIL MICHAEL REILLY 1 WILLIAM D LEAHY FLEET ADMIRAL AND ROO SE VELT S CHIEF OF STAFF CATA LOGED THE KING S RETINUE THE ROYAL FORTUNETELLER THE ROYAL FOOD TASTER THE CHIEF SERVER OF THE CEREMONIAL COFFEE AMONG OVER FORTY OTHERS AND COULD ONLY SAY IT WAS LIKE SOMETHING TRANSPORTED BY MAGIC FROM THE MIDDLE AGES 2 CAPTAIN JOHN S KEATING WHO ESCORTED THE KING FROM ARABIA TO HIS REN DEZVOUS WITH ROO SE VELT IN THE SUEZ CANAL S GREAT BITTER LAKE OBSERVED THAT IN THIS CORNER OF THE WORLD SO UNFAMILIAR TO AMERICANS HIS CREW WAS FORCED TO RELY ON ANTIQUE BRITISH ADMIRALTY MAPS FROM 1834 AND THAT HIS SHIP THE USS MURPHY WAS THE FIRST AMERICAN NAVAL VESSEL EVER TO ANCHOR IN THE PORT OF JIDDA 3 DESCRIBING THEIR EXPERIENCES AMERICANS RETURNED AGAIN AND AGAIN TO TROPES OF THE MYSTERIOUS AND MARVELOUS EVERYONE MENTIONED THE SHEEP ENCLOSED IN AN IMPROVISED PEN OF ROPES WOUND BETWEEN DEPTH CHARGES AT THE MURPHY S STERN AFTER THE ANIMALS WERE SLAUGHTERED THEIR CARCASSES WERE HUNG FROM THE SHIP S FLAGSTAFF ON DECK OBSERVERS BEHELD THE SPECTACLE OF THE KING S GIANT TENT THE BIG TOP ITS CENTER SUPPORTED BY THE MASSIVE BARREL OF A FIVE INCH GUN TILTED VERTICALLY 4 FOR HIS PART AS THE MEETING WAS ABOUT TO BEGIN ROO SE VELT SECRETED HIMSELF AWAY ON DECK TO PRIVATELY OBSERVE THE ARRIVING ENTOURAGE THIS IS FASCINATING HE EXCLAIMED REPEATEDLY TO NO ONE IN PAR TIC U LAR ABSOLUTELY FASCINATING 5 YET FOR A MEETING THAT PROMPTED SO MANY WITNESSES TO RECORD SUCH EVOCATIVE DETAILS WE KNOW WITH CERTAINTY VERY LITTLE ABOUT WHAT THE TWO HEADS OF STATE AC TUALLY MET TO DISCUSS ROO SE VELT SPOKE NO ARABIC AND IBN SAUD NO EN GLISH SO THE DIALOGUE WAS CONDUCTED THROUGH TRANSLATOR WILLIAM EDDY AN EX MARINE COL O NEL ACADEMIC SPY AND THE AMERICAN MINISTER TO SAUDI ARABIA IN THE OFFICIAL INTRODUCTION 1 ACCOUNT OF THE CONVERSATION EDDY AND HIS SAUDI COUNTERPART RECORDED CONVER SATIONS ABOUT THE JEWISH SETTLEMENT OF PALESTINE FRENCH INVOLVEMENT IN SYRIA AND LEBANON AND ROO SE VELT S INTEREST IN PROMOTING AGRICULTURAL IRRIGATION IN THE ARABIAN DESERT LEFT OUT WAS ANY MENTION OF THE REASON MOST SUBSEQUENT COM MENTATORS ASSUMED THE TWO FIGURES MUST HAVE MET OIL 6 WHETHER DISCUSSED THAT DAY OR NOT THE SUBJECT OF OIL CERTAINLY LOOMED LARGE IN THE BACKGROUND TWO AMERICAN FIRMS THE STANDARD OIL COMPANY OF CALI FORNIA AND THE TEXAS COMPANY SHARED AN EXCLUSIVE OIL CONCESSION FROM THE KING IN 1938 THEIR GEOLOGISTS HAD DISCOVERED PETROLEUM DEPOSITS ALONG WITH EVIDENCE OF UNPRE CE DENTED UNDERGROUND RESERVES THE COMPANIES JOINT VENTURE KNOWN AFTER 1944 AS THE ARABIAN AMERICAN OIL COMPANY OR ARAMCO HAD BEEN LOBBYING THE ROO SE VELT ADMINISTRATION SINCE 1941 TO PROVIDE DIRECT AID TO THE FRAGILE SAUDI GOVERNMENT AND HAD ALREADY ADVANCED THE CROWN SOME 6 8 MIL LION AGAINST FUTURE ROYALTY PAYMENTS THEMSELVES FOR ARAMCO SHORING UP AMERICAN SAUDI RELATIONS WAS AN INVESTMENT IN ITS OWN FUTURE SINCE OIL PRODUC TION IN THE COUNTRY DEMANDED A STABLE GOVERNMENT FOR THEIR PART THE SAUDIS SOUGHT TO ENSURE THE FINANCES NEEDED TO CONTINUE RULING THEIR ONLY RECENTLY UNITED KINGDOM STATE REVENUES FROM ANNUAL HAJJ PILGRIMAGES HAD SHRUNK SINCE THE GLOBAL DEPRESSION OF THE 1930S AND THE WAR HAD CAUSED NASCENT OIL PRODUC TION THERE TO DWINDLE 7 AS FOR THE ROO SE VELT ADMINISTRATION THE STATE WAR AND NAVY DEPARTMENTS EACH PERCEIVED MULTIPLE AMERICAN INTERESTS GEOPO LITI CALLY A STABLE SAUDI GOV ERNMENT WOULD PROVIDE A BUFFER BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND THE SOVIET UNION IN AN ALREADY VOLATILE REGION OF THE WORLD MILITARILY THE COUNTRY COULD OFFER LOGISTICAL ADVANTAGES FOR THE PLACEMENT OF AIRFIELDS AND TRANSIT RIGHTS FOR ALLIED AIRCRAFT BOUND FOR THE PACIFIC MATERIALLY THE MASSIVE OIL CONCESSION TO AMER ICAN FIRMS MIGHT SERVE AS A VITAL SOURCE OF WORLD SUPPLIES THUS TAKING PRESSURE OFF PRODUCTION IN THE WESTERN HEMI SPHERE TAKEN TOGETHER ARGUED SECRETARY OF STATE EDWARD STETTINIUS TO THE PRESIDENT IN DECEMBER 1944 THE GOVERN MENT HAD AN IMPERATIVE TO AID THE SAUDIS IF SUCH HELP IS NOT PROVIDED BY THIS GOVERNMENT STETTINIUS WARNED UNDOUBTEDLY IT WILL BE SUPPLIED BY SOME OTHER NATION WHICH MIGHT THUS ACQUIRE A DOMINANT POSITION IN THAT COUNTRY INIMICAL TO THE WELFARE OF SAUDI ARABIA AND TO THE NATIONAL INTEREST OF THE UNITED STATES 8 IN THE YEARS SINCE THIS MEETING HAS BECOME A KIND OF SET PIECE IN WRITINGS ABOUT THE EMERGING POSTWAR GEOPOLITICS OF ENERGY IN THESE ACCOUNTS THE RE LATIONSHIP FORGED BETWEEN ROO SE VELT AND IBN SAUD FUNCTIONS AS A MARKER IN U S MID EAST RELATIONS PROVIDING AN INDICATION OF THE RAPID EXPANSION OF U S INVOLVEMENT IN A REGION HITHERTO PERIPHERAL TO AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY THE EXOTICISM OF THE ENCOUNTER UNDERSCORED THE APPARENT NOVELTY OF AMERICAN ACTIONS DRIVEN BY NEW INTERESTS IN ENERGY SUPPLIES AND GLOBAL SECURITY THAT THE THE COAL FUTURE ECONOMIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL ANALYSIS 2 WAR HAD GIVEN RISE TO THE TWO LEADERS MET AS EQUALS BUT ALSO AS REPRESENTATIVES OF POTENTIAL PRODUCERS AND POTENTIAL CONSUMERS OF OIL WHILE HISTORIANS HAVE NOTED THAT THE MEETING WAS NEITHER THE TRUE BEGINNING OF AMERICAN ENGAGEMENT IN THE REGION NOR THE FIRST TIME AMERICANS SOUGHT TO DEVELOP FOREIGN OIL FIELDS THEY HAVE NEVERTHELESS DESCRIBED IT AS SIGNALING A NEW PHASE IN AMERICAN FOREIGN RELATIONS NEW INTERESTS IN FOSSILS FUELS AND THEIR POTENTIAL GLOBAL STRATEGIC SIG NIFICANCE APPEARED TO RESULT IN NEW POLICIES THE MEETING BETWEEN ROO SE VELT AND ABDEL AZIZ HAD LASTING SYMBOLIC AND PRACTICAL IMPORTANCE WRITES PO LITI CAL SCIENTIST RACHEL BRONSON NOTING THAT THE MEETING PROVED FAR MORE PO LITI CALLY CONSEQUENTIAL THAN U S DIPLOMATIC RECOGNITION OF SAUDI ARABIA BACK IN 1933 ACCORDING TO MID EAST SCHOLAR AARON DAVID MILLER ROO SE VELT S CON VERSATIONS WITH THE SAUDI KING SEEMED TO REFLECT THE UNITED STATES GROWING AWARENESS OF ITS INTERESTS IN SAUDI ARABIA IF NOT THE ENTIRE MIDDLE EAST 9 THERE WAS INDEED MUCH THAT WAS NEW IN HOW THE AMERICANS WHO FOLLOWED ROO SE VELT APPROACHED THE GEOPOLITICS OF ENERGY BUT THERE WAS ALSO MUCH THAT WAS NOT SO NEW AT ALL ALMOST EXACTLY A CENTURY BEFORE THE TWO LEADERS MET IN MARCH 1845 AN AMERICAN NAVY LIEUTENANT NAMED WILLIAM C CHAPLIN ROWED UP THE BRUNEI RIVER FOR AN AUDIENCE WITH SULTAN OMAR ALI CHAPLIN SERVED ABOARD AN AMERICAN NAVAL FRIGATE THE USS CONSTITUTION THAT HAD BEEN DIS PATCHED TO BRUNEI TO SECURE NEWLY DISCOVERED COAL DEPOSITS THERE FOR THE USE OF FUTURE LINES OF AMERICAN STEAMSHIPS AT THE TIME THESE COAL DEPOSITS WERE THE SUBJECT OF A BRIEF BUT INTENSE CONTEST BETWEEN THE BRITISH AND AMERICANS TO DETERMINE WHICH NATION WOULD GAIN A COMMERCIAL AND STRATEGIC ADVANTAGE IN THE VAST POTENTIAL MARKETS OF SOUTHEAST ASIA UNLIKE ROO SE VELT S MEETING WITH IBN SAUD A CENTURY LATER CHAPLIN S NEGOTIATION WITH OMAR ALI DID NOT RESULT IN A NEW AND LASTING GEOPO LITI CAL ARRANGEMENT AROUND ENERGY STILL THE MEETING REFLECTED BUT ONE WAY AMERICANS WERE LEARNING TO THINK ABOUT FOSSIL FUELS IN TERMS OF SECURITY AND THE NATIONAL INTEREST THIS BOOK IS ABOUT THE PATH BETWEEN THESE TWO MEETINGS READERS IN THE EARLY TWENTY FIRST CENTURY HARDLY NEED REMINDERS OF THE LINK BETWEEN ENERGY NATIONAL INTERESTS AND GLOBAL SECURITY SINCE THE 1970S PHRASES LIKE ENERGY IN DE PEN DENCE THE OIL WEAPON AND ENERGY SECURITY HAVE BE COME ENTRENCHED IN OUR POP U LAR PO LITI CAL LEXICON THE DE CADE BROUGHT OIL EMBARGOES GAS LINES AND PRICE HIKES FOR THE UNITED STATES IT SAW DECLINING DOMESTIC OIL PRODUCTION AND INCREASING RELIANCE ON FOREIGN CRUDE SINCE THIS TIME THE SECURITY OF THE WORLD OIL SUPPLY AND THE SECURITY OF THE NATION THAT DEPENDED SO MUCH UPON IT HAS BECOME A FAMILIAR ELEMENT OF AMERICAN DIPLOMATIC AND DEFENSE POLICY LEARNING TO THINK IN THESE TERMS HOWEVER DID NOT BEGIN IN THE 1970S 10 EDWARD STETTINIUS WROTE IN 1944 OF THE NATIONAL INTEREST OF THE UNITED STATES IN FORGING AN ARABIAN ALLIANCE AND ARABIAN OIL THE NATIONAL INTEREST WAS AN THE COAL FUTURE ECONOMIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL ANALYSIS 3