THE 30-YEAR HORIZON

By JOHN SANCHEZ

1 Introduction 1 2 Scenario planning: characteristics and current issues 10 3 Scenario plausibility: emerging debates in research and practice 39 4 Conceptual explorations: plausibility across disciplines 55 5 Empirical research: Methodology to study scenario plausibility 99 6 Experimental study: quantitative research findings 118 7 Experimental study: qualitative research findings 152 8 Synthesis: A conceptual map of scenario plausibility 173 9 Conclusions and outlook 195