BEYOND SMOKE AND MIRRORS
CONTENTS INTRODUCTION PART I CLIMATE GREENHOUSE EARTH TECHNICAL NOTE 2 1: THE SCIENCE OF THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT CLIMATE MODELING 3 1 INTRODUCTION 3 2 THE FIRST CLIMATE MODELS 3 3 CLIMATE CHANGE GOES BIG TIME 3 4 THE BIG PROBLEM: LIFECYCLE OF GREENHOUSE GASES 3 5 THE GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE TECHNICAL NOTE 3 1: OTHER GREENHOUSE GASES TECHNICAL NOTE 3 2: GEOENGINEERING THE PAST AS PROXY FOR THE FUTURE 4 1 A SHORT TOUR THROUGH 4 5 BILLION YEARS 4 2 THE PAST 400 000 YEARS 4 3 THE RECENT PAST PREDICTING THE FUTURE 5 1 WHO DOES IT? 5 2 HOW IS IT DONE? 5 3 RESULTS 5 4 WHERE ARE WE? PART II ENERGY TAKING UP ARMS AGAINST THIS SEA OF TROUBLES 6 1 INTRODUCTION 6 2 ENERGY NOW AND IN THE FUTURE MARKET EXCHANGE AND PPP 6 3 EMISSION TARGETS TECHNICAL NOTE 6 1: CARBON DIOXIDE EQUIVALENTS HOW FAST TO MOVE: A PHYSICIST’S LOOK AT THE ECONOMISTS ENERGY, EMISSIONS, AND ACTION 8 1 SETTING THE STAGE 8 2 SOURCES OF EMISSIONS ENERGY AND GREENHOUSE EMISSION FROM FOSSIL FUELS 8 3 REDUCING EMISSIONS 8 4 NO SILVER BULLETS 8 5 WINNERS AND LOSERS FOSSIL FUELS – HOW MUCH IS THERE? 9 1 WORLD OIL RESERVES 9 2 WORLD GAS RESERVES 9 3 WORLD COAL 9 4 CONCLUSION ELECTRICITY, EMISSIONS, AND PRICING CARBON 10 1 THE ELECTRICITY SECTOR 10 2 PRICING CARBON EMISSIONS: CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE 10 3 DOES WHAT GOES INTO STORAGE STAY THERE? 10 4 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION EFFICIENCY: THE FIRST PRIORITY 11 1 INTRODUCTION PRIMARY AND END-USE ENERGY EFFICIENCY 11 2 TRANSPORTATION 11 3 BUILDINGS 11 4 CONCLUSION TECHNICAL NOTE 11 1: CAFE STANDARDS NUCLEAR ENERGY 12 1 INTRODUCTION 12 2 RADIATION 12 3 SAFETY 12 4 SPENT FUEL: LOVE IT OR HATE IT, WE HAVE IT 12 5 ECONOMICS 12 6 PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS 12 7 NUCLEAR POWER AS PART OF THE SOLUTION TECHNICAL NOTE 12 1: NUCLEAR POWER PRIMER TECHNICAL NOTE 12 2: FRANCE’S LONG-RANGE NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT PLAN TECHNICAL NOTE 12 3: PRODUCING MATERIAL FOR WEAPONS TECHNICAL NOTE 12 4: EXTRACT FROM THE TREATY ON THE NON-PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS TECHNICAL NOTE 12 5: ISSUES IN INTERNATIONALIZING THE FUEL CYCLE RENEWABLES 13 1 INTRODUCTION 13 2 WIND 13 3 SOLAR ENERGY 13 4 GEOTHERMAL 13 5 HYDROPOWER 13 6 OCEAN ENERGY 13 7 THE ELECTRIC POWER DISTRIBUTION GRID TECHNICAL NOTE 13 1: PHOTOVOLTAIC CELLS BIOFUELS: IS THERE ANYTHING THERE? 14 1 INTRODUCTION 14 2 PHASE-1: ETHANOL FROM STARCH AND SUGAR 14 3 PHASE-2: CELLULOSIC ETHANOL 14 4 PHASE-3: OTHER PROCESSES 14 5 SUMMARY AN ENERGY SUMMARY PART III POLICY US POLICY – NEW THINGS, BAD THINGS, GOOD THINGS 16 1 INTRODUCTION 16 2 REDUCING EMISSIONS ON A NATIONAL SCALE 16 3 BAD THINGS 16 4 GOOD THINGS WORLD POLICY ACTIONS 17 1 INTRODUCTION 17 2 KYOTO-1: THE PROTOCOL OF CODA