CLIMATE CHANGE AND CARBON CYCLE
CONTENTS LONG-TERM TREND OF THE PARTIAL PRESSURE OF CO2 IN SURFACE WATERS AND SEAAIR CO2 FLUX IN THE EQUATORIAL PACI?C 1 INTRODUCTION 2 OBSERVATIONS 3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION SW IN THE HNLC REGION SW IN THE WESTERN PACI?C WARM POOL 3 3 AIR-SEA CO2 FLUX IN THE EQUATORIAL PACI?C ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS APPENDIX GLOBAL CHANGE AND OCEANIC PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY: EFFECTS OF OCEAN–ATMOSPHERE–BIOLOGICAL FEEDBACKS 2 OCEAN BIOTIC FEEDBACKS WITH CENTENNIAL CLIMATE CHANGE 3 OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE-ECOSYSTEM FEEDBACK PROCESSES 4 ABSORPTION OF RADIATION BY PHYTOPLANKTON IN THE UPPER OCEAN 5 PRODUCTION OF ATMOSPHERIC DMS BY OCEANIC PHYTOPLANKTON 6 DEPOSITION OF AEOLIAN DUST ON THE OCEAN BY THE ATMOSPHERE 7 CHANGES IN OCEANIC COMMUNITY COMPOSITION BY CLIMATE CHANGES 8 PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE NORTH PACI?C 9 CONCLUSION SIMULATED IN SITU MEASUREMENTS OF PRIMARY PRODUCTION IN JAPANESE WATERS 2 MATERIALS AND METHODS 2 1 DATASET OF PRIMARY PRODUCTION AROUND JAPAN 2 2 DE?NITION OF WATERS 2 3 13C-SPIKED INCUBATIONS AND CALCULATIONS FOR PRIMARY PRODUCTION 2 4 OBSERVATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS 2 5 COMPARISON BETWEEN IN-SITU AND SIMULATED IN-SITU INCUBATIONS 3 1 SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN EUPHOTIC ZONE AND UPPER MIXED LAYER 3 2 SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN PHYTOPLANKTON BIOMASS AND PRIMARY PRODUCTION 3 3 VERTICAL DISTRIBUTION AND DEPTH-INTEGRATION OF PHYTOPLANKTON BIOMASS AND PRIMARY PRODUCTION 3 4 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRIMARY PRODUCTION AND ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS 3 5 IMPROVING ALGORITHMS FOR PRIMARY PRODUCTION ESTIMATION DEPTH AND TIME RESOLVED PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY MODEL EXAMINED FOR OPTICAL PROPERTIES OF WATER 2 DEPTH AND TIME RESOLVED PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY MODEL 2 1 CARBON FIXATION RATE 2 2 PHOTOSYNTHETICALLY AVAILABLE RADIATION ALONG THE WATER COLUMN 2 3 VERTICAL DISTRIBUTION OF CHLOROPHYLL A ALONG THE WATER COLUMN 2 4 PHOTOSYNTHETICALLY AVAILABLE RADIATION 2 5 EXAMINATION OF PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY MODEL FROM THE POINT OF OPTICAL PROPERTY 2 6 A NEW MODEL FOR VERTICAL DISTRIBUTION OF PAR 3 SUMMARY SETTLING PARTICLES IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACI?C 2 MATERIAL AND ANALYTICAL METHODS 3 RESULTS 3 1 SITE 6 3 2 SITES 5 AND 7 3 3 SITE 8 4 DISCUSSION 4 1 GENERAL FEATURES OF THE SETTLING PARTICLE FLUX IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACI?C 4 2 COMPARISON OF ANNUAL MEAN PARTICLE FLUXES BETWEEN PACI?C AND ATLANTIC MID-LATITUDE SITES 4 3 ORIGIN OF LITHOGENICS IN THE MID-LATITUDE CENTRAL PACI?C 4 4 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LITHOGENICS AND PRIMARY PRODUCTION IN THE MID-LATITUDE CENTRAL PACI?C 5 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS UNDERSTANDING BIOGEOCHEMICAL PROCESSES IN THE PACI?C OCEAN ON THE BASIS OF LABILE COMPONENTS OF SETTLING PARTICLES 2 STUDY AREA 3 METHODOLOGY 4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 4 1 VARIATIONS IN TOTAL MASS AND AA FLUXES 4 2 VARIATIONS IN BIOGEOCHEMICAL PARAMETERS 4 3 COMPARISON WITH OTHER TRAP SITES 4 4 ENSO AND ZONAL VARIATIONS IN OBSERVED PARAMETERS 4 5 BIOGEOCHEMICAL INDICATORS AND THE PLANKTON COMMUNITY 5 CONCLUSIONS MONSOONAL IMPACTS ON THE BIOLOGICAL PUMP IN THE NORTHERN INDIAN OCEAN AS DISCERNED FROM SEDIMENT TRAP EXPERIMENTS 3 METHODS 3 1 SEDIMENT TRAP 3 2 CHEMICAL ANALYSIS 5 FACTORS TERMINATING PEAK FLUXES DURING THE LATE NE AND SW MONSOON 5 1 SEASONAL CHANGES OF POC/PIC RATIOS 5 2 COMPARISONS WITH OTHER RESULTS FROM THE NORTHERN 6 CONCLUSION VARIABILITY OF THE INDONESIAN THROUGH?OW: A REVIEW AND MODEL-TO-DATA COMPARISON 2 VELOCITY AND PROPERTY STRUCTURE OF THE THROUGH?OW 2 1 OBSERVED TRANSPORTS THROUGH MAJOR STRAITS OF THE INDONESIAN THROUGH?OW 2 2 INTRASEASONAL-TO-INTERANNUAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ITF TRANSPORT AND PROPERTY FLUXES 2 3 STORAGE AND MODI?CATION OF THE ITF WATERS WITHIN THE INTERNAL INDONESIAN SEAS 3 MODEL-TO-DATA COMPARISONS: METHOD 3 1 MODEL CON?GURATION 3 2 DATA ANALYSIS 4 RESULTS 4 1 TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE IN THE ITF 4 2 SPECTRAL CONTENT OF TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY 4 3 WAVE GUIDES IN THE ITF AND THEIR RELATION TO REMOTE WIND FORCING 5 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION CORAL RECORDS OF THE 1990S IN THE TROPICAL NORTHWEST PACI?C: ENSO, MASS CORAL BLEACHING, AND GLOBAL WARMING 2 STUDY SITES: TROPICAL NORTHWESTERN PACI?C 3 MATERIALS AND METHODS 3 1 MICRONESIA 3 2 BICOL, THE PHILIPPINES 3 3 ISHIGAKI ISLAND, THE RYUKYUS 3 4 PANDORA REEF, GBR 3 5 ISOTOPIC MEASUREMENTS 3 6 INSTRUMENTAL RECORDS 4 1 CORAL D18O RECORD OF SST AT ISHIGAKI ISLAND 4 2 ENSO SIGNALS IN THE CORAL D18O RECORD FROM MICRONESIA 4 3 SKELETAL D18O RECORDS OF CORAL BLEACHING 4 4 RECENT DECREASE IN CORAL D18O : AN INDICATION OF GLOBAL WARMING? 5 SUMMARY 10 RECENT ADVANCES IN CORAL BIOMINERALIZATION WITH IMPLICATIONS FOR PALEO-CLIMATOLOGY: A BRIEF OVERVIEW 2 DEVELOPMENT AND PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH CORAL PALEO-TEMPERATURE PROXIES 3 BIOLOGICAL SOURCES OF DISCREPANCIES IN MODERN CALIBRATIONS 3 1 GEOCHEMICAL HETEROGENEITY AT THE MILLIMETER-LENGTH SCALE 3 2 GEOCHEMICAL HETEROGENEITIES AT THE ULTRA-STRUCTURAL LEVEL 4 CONCLUSIONS 11 POTENTIAL FEEDBACK MECHANISM BETWEEN PHYTOPLANKTON AND UPPER OCEAN CIRCULATION WITH OCEANIC RADIATIVE TRANSFER PROCESSES IN?UENCED BY PHYTOPLANKTON – NUMERICAL OCEAN GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS AND AN ANALYTICAL SOLUTION 2 OCEAN GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL WITH PHOTOSYNTHESIS EFFECTS 3 FEEDBACK MECHANISM BETWEEN PHYTOPLANKTON AND THE OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT 4 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION 12 PRECESSION AND ENSO-LIKE VARIABILITY IN THE EQUATORIAL INDO-PACI?C OCEAN 2 METHODS 2 1 COCCOLITHS AS PALEOPRODUCTIVITY MARKERS 2 2 WIND STRESS AND PRIMARY PRODUCTION 3 MATERIAL 4 PRIMARY PRODUCTION VARIABILITY ALONG THE EQUATORIAL INDO-PACI?C 4 1 THE GULF OF ADEN AND THE SUMMER MONSOON 4 2 CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN AND THE INDIAN DIPOLE 4 3 THE SULU SEA AND THE EAST ASIAN WINTER MONSOON 4 4 THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACI?C 4 5 THE WESTERN PACI?C WARM POOL 4 6 PHASE OF PP AND PRECESSION 4 7 ASSESSMENT OF THE EQUATORIAL INDO-PACI?C PRIMARY PRODUCTION 5 DISCUSSION 5 1 ENSO-LIKE VARIABILITY 5 2 PRECESSION AND ENSO-LIKE 5 3 ADVANCE OF 3,000 YEARS 13 METHODS OF ESTIMATING PLANT PRODUCTIVITY AND CO2 FLUX IN AGRO-ECOSYSTEMS – LIKING MEASUREMENTS, PROCESS MODELS, AND REMOTELY SENSED INFORMATION 2 REMOTE SENSING OF ECOPHYSIOLOGICAL PARAMETERS AS RELATED TO PLANT PRODUCTIVITY AND CARBON CYCLE 2 1 BIOMASS, LEAF AREA INDEX, AND FRACTION OF ABSORBED PHOTOSYNTHETICALLY ACTIVE RADIATION 2 2 PHOTOSYNTHESIS, TRANSPIRATION, AND PHYSIOLOGICAL STRESS RESPONSE 2 3 WATER, CHLOROPHYLL, AND NITROGEN CONTENTS 3 METHODOLOGY OF SYNERGIZING REMOTELY SENSED INFORMATION AND BIOPHYSICAL AND ECOPHYSIOLOGICAL PROCESS MODELS 4 A SIMPLE METHOD FOR ESTIMATING NPP USING REMOTELY SENSED INFORMATION AS INPUT 4 1 THEORETICAL BACKGROUND 4 2 ESTIMATING NPP AT AN ECOSYSTEM SCALE BASED ON FAPAR FROM REMOTELY SENSED INFORMATION - A CASE STUDY 5 MEASUREMENT OF ECOSYSTEM CO2 FLUX AS RELATED TO REMOTELY SENSED INFORMATION - A CASE STUDY 5 1 ACQUISITION OF A COMPREHENSIVE DATA SET 5 2 DYNAMICS OF CO2 FLUX OVER AGRICULTURAL FIELD 5 3 SOIL CO2 EF?UX AND REMOTELY SENSED SURFACE TEMPERATURE 6 PREDICTING DYNAMIC CHANGE OF BIOMASS AND ECOSYSTEM CO2 FLUX BASED ON SYNERGY OF REMOTELY SENSED DATA AND A SVAT MODEL 6 1 THE SVAT MODEL 14 ABSORPTION OF PHOTOSYNTHETICALLY ACTIVE RADIATION, DRY-MATTER PRODUCTION, AND LIGHT-USE EF?CIENCY OF TERRESTRIAL VEGETATION: A GLOBAL MODEL SIMULATION 2 1 CANOPY ABSORPTION OF PAR 2 2 CARBON CYCLE 2 3 LIGHT-USE EF?CIENCY 2 4 DATA AND SIMULATION 3 1 GLOBAL FEATURES 3 2 GRID-BY-GRID CORRELATION 4 1 COMPARISON WITH OTHER STUDIES 4 2 HIGHER RESOLUTION MAPPING APPENDIX: HOW INCIDENT PAR AND PPFD IS ESTIMATED IN THIS STUDY 15 TERRESTRIAL NET PRIMARY PRODUCTION (NPP) ESTIMATION USING NOAA SATELLITE IMAGERY: INTER-ANNUAL CHANGES BETWEEN 1982 AND 2 DATA AND METHODS 2 1 MATERIALS 2 2 INTENSITY CORRECTION 2 3 NPP ESTIMATION 3 1 INTENSITY CORRECTION 3 2 LIGHT USE EF?CIENCY SETTING 3 3 NPP ESTIMATION 4 CONCLUSION 16 GLOBAL MAPPING OF NET PRIMARY PRODUCTION 2 PRIMARY PRODUCTION 3 OUTLINES OF NPP ESTIMATION 3 1 METHODS 3 3 ESTIMATION IN THE OCEAN 4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS 4 1 SATELLITE DATA USED 4 2 GLOBAL NPP MAP 4 3 VALIDATIONS 5 CONCLUSION 17 SLASH-AND-BURN AGRICULTURE IN A JAPANESE CEDAR (CRYPTOMERIA JAPONICA D DON ) PLANTATION: EFFECTS OF FIRE ON NUTRIENTS AND SOIL EMISSIONS OF CARBON DIOXIDE 2 1 STUDY SITES 2 2 THE SLASH-AND-BURN SITES 2 3 NUTRIENT POOLS IN ABOVE- AND BELOW-GROUND LITTERS 2 4 SOIL NUTRIENT CONTENTS 2 5 SOIL CO2 EF?UX MEASUREMENTS 2 6 SOIL MICROBIAL BIOMASS 3 1 PRE-BURNING SOIL CONDITION, ORGANIC MATTER, AND NUTRIENT POOLS 3 2 EFFECTS OF BURNING AND NUTRIENT DYNAMICS DURING THE TURNIP CROP 3 3 TOTAL CARBON AND NITROGEN CONTENTS IN THE TOPSOIL 3 4 EFFECTS OF SLASH-AND-BURN ON SOIL CO2 EF?UX 3 5 EFFECTS OF BURNING ON SOIL CO2 EF?UX AND MICROBIAL BIOMASS 4 1 EFFECTS OF BURNING ON THE AVAILABILITY OF NUTRIENTS OF THE TOPSOIL 4 2 NITROGEN DYNAMICS AND MICROBIAL ACTIVITIES 4 3 RESPONSES OF SOIL CO2 EF?UX AND CARBON DYNAMICS TO FIRE 18 LEAF AND SHOOT ECOPHYSIOLOGICAL PROPERTIES AND THEIR ROLE IN PHOTOSYNTHETIC CARBON GAIN OF COOL-TEMPERATE DECIDUOUS FOREST TREES 2 1 STUDY SITE AND PLANT SPECIES 2 2 EVALUATION OF FOREST CANOPY LEAF AREA INDEX 2 3 MEASUREMENTS OF LEAF GAS EXCHANGE 2 4 MEASUREMENTS OF SHOOT ARCHITECTURE AND PHOTOSYNTHESIS 3 1 SEASONAL CHANGES OF FOREST CANOPY PROPERTIES 3 2 BRANCH ARCHITECTURE AND PHOTOSYNTHETIC CARBON GAIN AT THE CANOPY TOP 3 3 LIGHT ENVIRONMENT AND BRANCH PHOTOSYNTHESIS AT INNER CANOPY 19 SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN CH4 UPTAKE AND CO2 EMISSION BY A JAPANESE TEMPERATE DECIDUOUS FOREST SOIL 2 1 SITE DESCRIPTION 2 2 MEASUREMENT OF CH4 AND CO2 FLUXES 2 3 LITTERFALL MEASUREMENTS 2 4 SOIL TEMPERATURE AND WATER CONTENT 2 5 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS 3 1 SOIL TEMPERATURE AND WATER CONTENT 3 2 CH4 UPTAKE AND CO2 EMISSION 3 3 LITTERFALL 4 1 CH4 UPTAKE 4 2 CO2 EMISSION 4 3 CH4 UPTAKE VS CO2 EMISSION 4 4 CH4 UPTAKE AND CO2 EMISSION DURING THE SNOWPACK SEASON CHAPTER ]), AND IN THE WESTERN PACI?C WARM POOL AS A FUNCTION OF SST AND SEA SURFACE SALINITY (SSS) BY USING AN AVERAGE SST (27 4 1C) AND CONCENTRATION OF NITRATE AND NITRITE (3 9 MMOL/KG) IN THE HNLC SW DATA MEASURED BY JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY, METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE (JMA/MRI), NATIONAL OCE- ANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, PACI?C MARINE ENVIRONMENTAL LABORATORY (NOAA/ PMEL), AND NOAA, ATLANTIC OCEANOGRAPHIC AND METEOROLOGICAL LABORATORY (NOAA/AOML) FROM 1998 TO 2003 THE SEAAIR CO2 ?UX IN THE EQUATORIAL PACI?C (51N–101S, 1401E–901W) SHOWED LOWEST ?UX IN JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1998 (0 170 1 PG C/YR, 1997/98 EL NIN˜O), AND HIGH- EST (0 970 4 PG C/YR) IN JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2001, SUGGESTING SIGNI?CANT INTERANNUAL VARIA- TIONS IN SEAAIR CO2 ?UX IN THE EQUATORIAL PACI?C IN OCTOBER 2002JANUARY 2003, WHICH WAS WITHIN A WEAK EL NIN˜O PERIOD, THE CO2 ?UX IN THE EQUATORIAL PACI?C WAS 0 570 3 PG C/YR, ALMOST SAME AS THAT OF THE NON-EL NIN˜O PERIOD IN THIS PERIOD, SEAAIR CO2 ?UX IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACI?C DECREASED CONSIDERABLY TO THE SAME LEVEL OF JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1998, BUT THAT IN THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACI?C REMAINED FAIRLY CONSTANT KEYWORDS: PARTIAL PRESSURE OF CO2; SEAAIR CO2 ?UX; OCEANIC CARBON CYCLE; EQUATORIAL PACI?C; LONG-TERM TREND AIR): F ¼ K S PCOSW 2 PCOAIR IN WHICH THE SEAAIR CO2 ?UX HAS BEEN ESTIMATED TO VARY BETWEEN 0 02 AND 0 96 PG–C/YR, DEPENDING ON CHANGES IN PHYSICAL AND BIOLOGICAL PROCESSES DRIVEN BY THE EL NIN˜OSOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) PHENOMENA (FEELY ET AL , , THE EQUATORIAL PACI?C CONSISTS OF TWO REGIONS THAT HAVE DISTINCT CARBON SYSTEM DYNAMICS: THE HIGH NUTRIENT GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND RESPONSE OF CARBON CYCLE SW IN THE CENTER OF UPWELLING AREA NEAR THE EQUATOR (1 2770 18 MATM/YR) IN THE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND RESPONSE OF CARBON CYCLE SW IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACI?C (FIG 1) BY USING THE DATA MEASURED BY THE MRI/JMA GROUP OVER THE PERIOD FROM JANUARY 1987 TO MARCH SW) DATA (HTTP://WWW PMEL NOAA GOV/UWPCO2/, HTTP:// WWW AOML NOAA GOV/OCD/OACES/MASTERMAP HTML) TAKEN BY THE CO2 GROUPS OF THE NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, THE PACI?C MARINE ENVIRONMENTAL LABORATORY (NOAA/PMEL) AND THE ATLANTIC OCEANOGRAPHIC AND METEOROLOGICAL LABORATORY (NOAA/AOML) SW (DASHED LINE) WAS EXAMINED IN THE WESTERN PACI?C WARM POOL (A) AND THE HNLC REGION (B) GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND RESPONSE OF CARBON CYCLE JAN –FEB SEPT –DEC NOV –DEC DEC 1995–FEB DEC 1996–FEB OCTOBER DEC 1997–JAN FEB MIRAI KA’IMIMOANA TAO FEB –MAY JAN JAN -–FEB KAIYO KA’IMIMOANA TAO JAN –FEB OCT –DEC MIRAI RON BROWN TAO NOV –DEC MIRAI GASEX JAN –MAR FEB –MAR MIRAI RON BROWN TAO OCT –NOV NOV 2002–MAR MIRAI THE MONTHLY SOI VALUES ARE TAKEN FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTRE (HTTP://WWW CPC NCEP NOAA GOV) GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND RESPONSE OF CARBON CYCLE SW, CO2 MIXING RATIO IN THE DRY AIR EQUIL- IBRATED WITH SURFACE SEAWATER, WAS ESTIMATED TO BE WITHIN 1–2 PPM RESULTS OF AN INTERCOMPARISON HELD ABOARD THE FS METEOR IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN JUNE 1996, WHICH INCLUDED THE JMA/MRI SYSTEM BUT NOT THE NOAA SYSTEMS, GENERALLY AGREE WITH ABOUT 2 PPM (KO¨RTZINGER ET AL , 2000) SW DATA TAKEN AT THE SAME THERMODYNAMIC, OCEANOGRAPHIC AND BIOLOGICAL CONDITIONS FEELY ET AL (1999) HAVE REPORTED THE LONG-TERM SW FOR THE CORE OF UPWELLED WATER IN THE REGION OF TEMPERATURE MINIMUM NEAR THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 140 AND 1601W USING TEMPERATURE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND RESPONSE OF CARBON CYCLE 140°E LONGITUDE 150°W ], SSS AND SST ALONG THE EQUATOR IN OCTOBER/DECEMBER 1999 (RED), JANUARY/MARCH 2001 (BLUE), JANUARY/MARCH 2002 (GREEN) AND NOVEMBER 2002/MARCH SW AND THE THIN LINE ARROWS SHOW THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE HNLC REGION AND WESTERN PACI?C WARM POOL (FOR COLOUR VERSION, SEE COLOUR PLATE SECTION) GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND RESPONSE OF CARBON CYCLE AND SST: PCOSW SW WOULD BE THE SAME IRRESPECTIVE OF CHANGES IN SST AND NO3 NO3 INCREASES WITH DECREASE IN SST (CHAVEZ ET AL , 1996) IN THIS CONTEXT, SW WITH CONDITIONS BETWEEN LOW AS INDICATED BY AN ARROW IN FIG 5, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND RESPONSE OF CARBON CYCLE SW IN THE HNLC REGION IN TIME OF OBSERVATION LONGITUDE EQUATION N R JAN –FEB SEP –OCT DEC SW, THE STANDARD ERROR FOR THE COEF?CIENT AND INTERCEPT ARE IN PARENTHESIS AFTER COEF?CIENT AND INTERCEPT, N IS THE NUMBER OF DATA, AND R IS THE CORRELATION COEF?CIENT MACRONUTRIENTS IN SURFACE SEAWATER WERE MONITORED CONTINUOUSLY FOR CRUISES CONDUCTED AFTER 1999 GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND RESPONSE OF CARBON CYCLE SW(T) ¼ 1 4(T–1985)+418 0, WHERE T IS THE ELAPSED TIME (YEAR) SINCE JANUARY 1985 THE STANDARD ERROR OF ANALYSIS WAS 7 4 MATM, AND THE STANDARD ERROR FOR THE COEF?CIENT WAS 0 5 MATM/YR, INTERCEPT 6 7 MATM AND THE CORRELATION COEF?CIENT WAS 0 68 GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND RESPONSE OF CARBON CYCLE SW AT AVERAGE SST AND NO3 AN ARROW SHOWS APPARENT SST DEPENDENCE OF NO3 OBSERVED IN THE HNLC REGION GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND RESPONSE OF CARBON CYCLE SW IN THE HNLC RE- GION AND WESTERN PACI?C WARM POOL, WE USED A MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION CALCULATED AS A FUNCTION OF SST AND SSS AGAINST GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND RESPONSE OF CARBON CYCLE SW IN THE WESTERN PACI?C WARM POOL IN SW(72 4) ¼ 717 6(7242 7)+10 66(72 82)SST+21 90(75 45)SSS SW(70 9) ¼ 619 9(7242 7)+8 54(73 46)SST+21 08(72 59)SSS NOV SW(71 8) ¼ 88 8(7124 9)1 36(72 37)SST+8 71(72 62)SSS SW(73 1) ¼ 605 8(7204 4)+7 47(76 37)SST+21 24(77 96)SSS SW(76 5) ¼ 20 2(7155 3)7 57(71 58)SST+17 42(73 75)SSS SW(73 1) ¼ 82 0(732 8)+13 2(70 88)SST+1 36(71 16)SSS SW(73 0) ¼ 325 1(793 6)+5 83(72 48)SST+14 87(72 48)SSS SW(73 6) ¼ 249 2(794 6)1 44(71 42)SST+19 19(73 46)SSS OCT SW(72 3) ¼ 579 0(738 3)+10 43(70 67)SST+18 60(70 89)SSS SW(72 8) ¼ 536 2(722 2)+9 46(70 42)SST+18 21(70 85)SSS SW(72 6) ¼ 439 5(742 6)–2 44(70 64)SST+25 27(70 97)SSS SW(71 9) ¼ 575 1(766 9)+7 66(71 14)SST+20 60(71 91)SSS SW(71 7) ¼ 1344 6(739 8)+9 89(70 89)SST+41 37(71 00)SSS SW(72 5) ¼ 1665 1(750 0)+9 23(70 48)SST+51 15(71 38)SSS MAR SW(72 5) ¼ 525 5(758 5)–15 27(70 77)SST+38 91(71 53)SSS SW(71 4) ¼ 485 9(710 1)+4 89(70 36)SST+20 67(70 25)SSS GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND RESPONSE OF CARBON CYCLE SW (µATM) YEAR SW(T) ¼ 1 3(T1985)+344 0, WHERE T IS THE ELAPSED TIME (YEAR) SINCE JANUARY 1985 THE STANDARD ERROR OF ANALYSIS WAS 5 6 MATM, AND THE STANDARD ERROR FOR THE COEF?CIENT WAS 0 3 MATM/YR, INTERCEPT 5 6 MATM AND THE CORRELATION COEF?CIENT WAS 0 71 GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND RESPONSE OF CARBON CYCLE SW OVER THE PACI?C EQUA- TORIAL ZONE APPEARS TO HAVE CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE PAST TWO DEC- ADES IN COINCIDENCE WITH THE PDO PHASE SHIFT THAT OCCURRED BETWEEN SWSST OR DICSST RELATIONSHIP HAS BEEN USED IN ORDER TO ESTIMATE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL VAR- SW IN THE EQUATORIAL PACI?C (LEE ET AL , 1998; BOUTIN ET AL , ; ISHII ET AL , 2003) FOR EXAMPLE, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND RESPONSE OF CARBON CYCLE SW–SST ANOMALY RELATIONSHIPS, WHICH AGREED WELL WITH THAT OF COSCA ET AL (2003), WHO GAVE THE MEAN ?UX OF 0 370 1 PG/YR FOR AN AREA THAT COVERS APPROX- IMATELY HALF OF THE PACI?C EQUATORIAL BELT (901W–1651E, 51N–101S) DURING 19852001 LOUKOS ET AL (2000) FOUND AN AVERAGE CO2 ?UX OF 0 5 PG C/YR FOR 19821993, WHILE RECENTLY ISHII ET AL (2003) FOUND 0 4 PG C/YR FOR 19902000 ?UX OBTAINED IN THIS WORK A LARGE SEAAIR 0 4 PG C/YR WAS OBSERVED IN JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2001, AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND RESPONSE OF CARBON CYCLE JAN -FEB NOV -DEC NOV 2001-FEB OCT 2002-JAN 140?E 100?W 5°N 10°S 5°N 10°S LATITUDE LONGITUDE IN THE EQUATORIAL PACI?C IN JANUARY/ FEBRUARY 1998, JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1999, NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 1999, JANU- ARY/FEBRUARY 2001, NOVEMBER 2001/FEBRUARY 2002, AND OCTOBER 2002/JAN- GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND RESPONSE OF CARBON CYCLE SPRING–SPRING 101N–101S, 1351E–801W FEELY ET AL , 101N–101S, 1351E–801W 51N–101S, 1401E–901W 12(18) 0 170 1(0 0870 05) THIS WORK 71(39) 0 670 3(0 270 1) THIS WORK 64(43) 0 670 3(0 270 1) THIS WORK 88(58) 0 970 4(0 370 1) THIS WORK 50(31) 0 570 3(0 170 1) THIS WORK 42(18) 0 570 3(0 0570 03) THIS WORK NOTE: DPCO2 AND CO2 ?UX WEST OF 1601W (CENTRAL AND WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACI?C) ARE IN PARENTHESES AFTER THOSE OF EQUATORIAL PACI?C GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND RESPONSE OF CARBON CYCLE SW VALUES DUE TO UPWELLING OF RELATIVELY COLD CO2-ENRICHED WATERS FROM THE EQUATORIAL UNDERCURRENT COUPLED WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST- ERLY WINDS, THE RESULTING CO2 ?UXES DURING THE 2002/03 EL NIN˜O IN THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACI?C WERE VERY SIMILAR TO THE ?UXES OBSERVED DURING A NON-EL NIN˜O PERIOD THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACI?C (WEST OF 1601W) SHOWED RELATIVELY LARGE VARIABILITY OF SEAAIR CO2 ?UX AS POINTED OUT BY INOUE ET AL (2002), THOUGH CHANGES IN SEAAIR CO2 ?UX WOULD ONLY AFFECT THE GROWTH RATE OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 BY ABOUT 0 2 PPM/YR THESE RESULTS SUGGEST THE RECENT PHASE SHIFT OF THE 1990S (CHAVEZ ET AL , 2003; TAKAHASHI ET AL , 2003) MAY HAVE RESULTED IN A NET INCREASE IN THE OUTGASING OF CO2 AT THE EQUATOR, CAUSING AN ENHANCEMENT OF THE GLOBAL WARMING IM- PACTS OF CO2 ON THE ATMOSPHERE ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS WE THANK OF?CERS AND CREW OF R/V NATSUSHIMA, R/V KAIYO, AND R/V MIRAI BELONGING TO THE JAPAN MARINE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CENTER (JAMSTEC), GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND RESPONSE OF CARBON CYCLE 5°N 10°S CO2 FLUX (MOLE M-2YR-1) 10°S OCT 2002-JAN LATITUDE 140°E 100°W LONGITUDE 140°E 100°W LONGITUDE ?UX IN THE EQUATORIAL PACI?C IN JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1998, JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1999, NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 1999, JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2001, NOVEMBER 2001/FEBRUARY 2002, AND OCTOBER 2002/ JANUARY 2003 (FOR COLOUR VERSION, SEE COLOUR PLATE SECTION) GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND RESPONSE OF CARBON CYCLE SW ON THE BASIS GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND RESPONSE OF CARBON CYCLE SW–SST RELATIONSHIP IN THE EQUATORIAL PACI?C USED IN THIS WORK JANUARY/FEBRUARY SW(3 5) ¼ 50 7(11 6)+10 73(0 39)SST (SST429 1C) SW(4 8) ¼ 363 1 (SSTR29 1C) AIR ¼ 347 8(0 9) REGION III INOUE ET AL (2002)A REGION IV INOUE ET AL (2002)A REGION V INOUE ET AL (2002)A JANUARY/FEBRUARY SW(6 1) ¼ 269 7(4 7)+8 17(0 19)SST SW(6 7) ¼ 1019 3(6 5)24 49(0 25)SST SW(5 3) ¼ 758 3(3 7)12 77(0 14)SST SW(2 4) ¼ 1678 0(41 8)47 69(1 53)SST SW ¼ 362 1(7 5) PCOAIR 354 4(2 9) 140°E 100°W 140°E 100°W I II II I IV V VI JAN -FEB LATITUDE 5°N 10°S LATITUDE 5°N 10°S 140°E 100°W I II II I IV V JAN -FEB I II II I IV V VI NOV -DEC I II III IV V VI VII JAN -FEB I II II I IV V VI LONGITUDE LONGITUDE OCT 2002-JAN I II III IV NOV 2001-FEB SW–SST RELATIONSHIP THE EQUATIONS USED IN THE RESPECTIVE AREAS ARE GIVEN IN TABLE A 1 GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND RESPONSE OF CARBON CYCLE NOVEMBER/DECEMBER SW(14 6) ¼ 726 2(6 1)12 17(0 28)SST SW(8 4) ¼ 777 6(7 1)16 95(0 28)SST SW(6 6) ¼ 932 7(8 3)18 20(0 29)SST SW(4 9) ¼ 1182 5(42 5)28 45(1 58)SST SW(4 4) ¼ 180 1(67 8)+18 42(2 27)SST SW(3 4) ¼ 503 6(74 4)+28 50(2 51)SST AIR ¼ 355 9(1 3) JANUARY/FEBRUARY SW(20 2) ¼ 1202 4(46 2)27 56(1 83)SST SW(7 9) ¼ 1904 8(68 5)56 48(2 59)SST SW(2 7) ¼ 264 2(13 3)+9 17(0 52)SST SW ¼ 472 3(3 9) SW(2 5) ¼ 1886 0(87 4)54 18(3 17)SST SW ¼ 371 1(4 0) AIR ¼ 356 0(1 3) NOVEMBER 2001/FEBRUARY SW(19 1) ¼ 742 3(9 0)12 92(0 41)SST SW(9 8) ¼ 570 6(5 3)8 43(0 21)SST SW(7 7) ¼ 910 8(20 5)16 82(0 72)SST SW ¼ 368 5(8 6) AIR ¼ 358 5(1 7) OCTOBER 2002/JANUARY SW ¼ 450 4(14 1) SW ¼ 352 5(2 8) SW(4 5) ¼ 651 4(6 9)10 79(0 26)SST SW(4 0) ¼ 1041 3(13 7)21 50(0 48)SST SW(2 9) ¼ 211 2(6 5)+19 41(0 22)SST SW(3 3) ¼ 9 9(9 3)+12 36(0 32)SST AIR ¼ 359 8(1 4) SW DATA WERE ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF TABLE 1 BY INOUE ET AL (2002) TABLE A 1 (CONTINUED ) JANUARY/FEBRUARY N R GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND RESPONSE OF CARBON CYCLE