CLIMATE CHANGE TIPPING POINTS: SCIENTIFIC PERSPECTIVES
CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION ? ? ? 1 REFERENCES ? ? ? 7 2 TIPPING POINTS A SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE ? ? ? 9 2 1 TIPPING POINTS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES ? ? 10 2 2 TIPPING POINTS IN SOCIAL SCIENCES ? ? 12 2 3 TIPPING POINTS IN SOCIAL ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS ? ? 15 REFERENCES ? ? 18 3 GOVERNANCE OF SOCIAL TIPPING POINTS AND RESILIENCE A STAKEHOLDER AGENCY PERSPECTIVE ? ? 23 3 1 GOVERNANCE AND THE STATE ? ? 24 3 2 FROM GOVERNANCE TO STATE CAPACITY ? ? 26 3 2 1 STATE CAPACITY COMPONENTS ? ? 27 3 2 2 STATE CAPACITY AND DEMOCRACY ? ? 30 3 3 STATE CAPACITY ABSENCE AND STATE FRAGILITY ? ? 30 3 4 STATE CAPACITY AND RESILIENCE ? ? 33 3 5 NON STATE ACTORS CAPACITIES AND RESILIENCE ? ? 36 3 5 1 LOCAL NON STATE ACTORS ? ? 38 3 5 2 PRIVATE NON STATE ACTORS ? ? 39 3 5 3 NON EU TRANSNATIONAL NON STATE ACTORS ? ? 40 3 5 4 THE MULTIFACETED NATURE OF THE EU AS A TRANSNATIONAL ACTOR INTEGRATION OF CORE STATE POWERS ? ? 43 3 5 5 INTER DYNAMICS BETWEEN STATE AND NON STATE ACTORS CAPACITIES A MULTILEVEL APPROACH ? ? 46 REFERENCES ? ? 47 4 SPATIAL DETERMINANTS OF TIPPING POINT GOVERNANCE BEYOND STAKEHOLDER AGENCY ? ? 55 4 1 EU CORE PERIPHERY DICHOTOMY A SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF VULNERABILITIES AND CAPACITIES ? ? 56 4 2 REGIONAL ECONOMIC RESILIENCE A BRIEF GLANCE ? ? 64 4 3 DETERMINANTS OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC RESILIENCE ? ? 66 4 3 1 COMPOSITIONAL FACTORS ? ? 67 4 3 2 COLLECTIVE FACTORS ? ? 69 4 3 3 CONTEXTUAL FACTORS ? ? 70 4 4 DETERMINANTS OF REGIONAL RESILIENCE VIS VIS TIPPING POINTS IN THE EU ? ? 71 4 4 1 COMPOSITIONAL FACTORS ? ? 72 4 4 2 COLLECTIVE FACTORS ? ? 75 4 4 3 CONTEXTUAL FACTORS ? ? 78 REFERENCES ? ? 82 5 GOVERNING SOCIAL TIPPING POINTS IN THE EU S PERIPHERY A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK AND METHODOLOGY ? ? 87 5 1 GOVERNANCE OF SOCIAL TIPPING POINTS A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK ? ? 87 5 2 METHODOLOGY AND EMPIRICAL STRATEGY ? ? 91 REFERENCES ? ? 93 6 RESILIENCE IN MIGRATION CLIMATE CHANGE AND GEOPOLITICS A CASE OF THE EU S PERIPHERY ? ? 95 6 1 MORIA CAMP BURNDOWN ? ? 95 6 1 1 IDENTIFICATION OF THE MIGRATION INDUCED SOCIAL TIPPING POINT ? ? 95 6 1 2 STATE RESILIENCE IN ASYLUM MANAGEMENT IN MORIA CAMP ? ? 98 6 1 3 NON STATE ACTORS RESILIENCE IN MORIA CAMP BURNOUT ? 101 6 2 TATRA MOUNTAIN BARK BEETLE OUTBREAK ? 105 6 2 1 IDENTIFICATION OF THE CLIMATE INDUCED SOCIAL TIPPING POINT ? 105 6 2 2 STATE RESILIENCE TO THE TATRA MOUNTAIN BARK BEETLE OUTBREAK ? 107 6 2 3 NON STATE ACTORS RESILIENCE TO THE TATRA MOUNTAIN BARK BEETLE OUTBREAK ? 111 6 3 WAR IN UKRAINE ? 113 6 3 1 IDENTIFICATION OF THE GEOPOLITICS INDUCED SOCIAL TIPPING POINT ? 113 6 3 2 STATE RESILIENCE IN MANAGING UKRAINIAN REFUGEE INFLOWS ? 116 6 3 3 NON STATE ACTORS RESILIENCE IN MANAGING UKRAINIAN REFUGEE INFLOWS ? 119 REFERENCES ? 124 7 RESILIENCE OF THE EU S PERIPHERY VIS VIS SOCIAL TIPPING POINTS POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS ? 129 7 1 DO NOT FOCUS ON GOVERNING SOCIAL TIPPING POINTS GOVERN THE SIDE EFFECTS ? 131 7 2 STRENGTHENING THE STATE CAPACITY ? 133 7 3 INVESTING IN NON STATE ACTORS RESILIENCE ? 137 7 4 BUILDING MORE RESILIENT EUROPEAN UNION ? 139 7 5 FORTIFYING PERIPHERAL AREAS AS A PRECONDITION FOR RESILIENT EUROPEAN UNION ? 142 7 6 RETHINKING METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH TOWARD SOCIAL ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS ? 148 REFERENCES ? 149 8 CONCLUSION ? 153 REFERENCES ? 156 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ON FEBRUARY 28 AND APRIL 4 2022 RESPECTIVELY THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC RELEASED THE SECOND AND THIRD VOLUMES OF ITS SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT IPCC 2022A B THE PANEL MADE UP OF WORLD RENOWNED EXPERTS ON SOCIAL ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS WARNED AGAINST MISMANAGING GLOBAL CLIMATIC AND SOCIETAL CHALLENGES WHICH COULD ULTIMATELY LEAD TO IRREVERSIBLE CONSEQUENCES AND POTENTIAL TIPPING POINTS WITH CASCADING EFFECTS BEYOND SYSTEM BOUNDARIES THE ADVERSE THREATS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PLAGUING THE GLOBAL COMMUNITY ARE ALMOST TOO NUMEROUS TO BE COUNTED RANGING FROM MELTING ICE AND PERMAFROST TO WILDFIRES GROUNDWATER SALINITY FLOODS AND SEA LEVEL RISES NOT ONLY ARE THESE CHALLENGES DAN GEROUS IN AND OF THEMSELVES BUT THEY CAN ALSO AFFECT ENTIRE ECOSYSTEMS SPECIES AND KEY INFRASTRUCTURES OF CITIES AND HUMAN SETTLEMENTS AND TRANSLATE INTO THE DEGRADA TION OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES AND LIVELIHOODS HEALTH RISKS AND DISEASES FOOD AND WATER SECURITY NOT TO OMIT THE GRADUAL DISMANTLING OF POLITICAL AND LEGAL SYSTEMS CULTURAL VALUES AND TRUST IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS ACCORDING TO THE IPCC 2022A 52 CLIMATE HAZARDS E G DROUGHTS TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS ASSOCIATED WITH EXTREME EVENTS HAVE BOTH DIRECT E G SHELTER DESTRUCTION AND INDIRECT E G RURAL INCOME LOSSES CAUSES OF INVOLUNTARY MIGRATION AND DIS PLACEMENT CLIMATE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DISPLACE LARGE NUMBERS OF PEOPLE FROM THE COUNTRYSIDE TO THE CITIES AND WHEN LIFE IN THE URBAN CENTERS BECOMES UNSUS TAINABLE MANY WILL CONTINUE MIGRATING ELSEWHERE RIGAUD ET AL 2018 ACCORDING TO BALSARI ET AL 2020 IT IS NOW RECOGNIZED THAT CLIMATE CHANGE IS A THREAT MULTIPLIER THAT WILL ACCELERATE THE DECISION TO MIGRATE AND WILL DISPROPORTIONATELY AFFECT ALREADY VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES FORECASTS FOR WORST CASE SCENARIOS BUSINESS AS USUAL APPROACH SHOW THAT ALMOST A THIRD OF THE WORLD S POPULATION WILL EVENTUALLY LIVE IN UNINHABITABLE CLIMATE ZONES COMBINED WITH CONTEXT SPECIFIC SOCIAL POLITICAL GEOPOLITICAL AND ECONOMIC DRIVERS ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION IS DISPLACING VULNERABLE POPULATIONS MIGRATION AND CONFLICTS RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND RESULTING AGRICULTURAL PROBLEMS ARE INCREASINGLY PRESENT FOR EXAMPLE IN THE SEMI ARID SAHEL WHICH STRETCHES ACROSS 1 AFRICA FROM ETHIOPIA TO SENEGAL IN THE SAHEL AGRICULTURE AND LIVESTOCK FARMING ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT FOR SMALLHOLDERS DUE TO THE LACK OF WATER IN THE SAHARA CONTRIBUTING TO CONFLICTS IN NIGERIA AKINYEMI OLANIYAN 2017 UGANDA BRANCH 2018 SUDAN MAZO 2009 AND KENYA PARENTI 2011 MANY PEOPLE FACED WITH AN UNBEARABLE CLIMATE AND FOOD INSECURITY LEADING TO VIOLENT CONFLICTS HAVE LEFT THEIR HOMES AND MIGRATED TO URBAN CENTERS NEIGHBORING AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND SOME EVEN ACROSS THE SAHARA AND THE MEDITERRANEAN INTO EUROPE IN ADDITION IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA MENA REGION CLIMATE CHANGE ALONG WITH WATER SCARCITY AND DROUGHTS IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST MISMANAGEMENT OF WATERSHEDS UNMODERNIZED IRRIGATION SYSTEMS AND CONSEQUENT IMPACTS ON REGIONAL HYDROLOGY HAD A PROFOUND IMPACT ON SYRIA S CIVIL WAR THAT EVENTUALLY LED TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF LARGE POPULATIONS FROM THEIR ANCESTRAL LANDS TO URBAN CENTERS INCLUDING THE SEAT OF THE ASSAD GOVERNMENT IN DAMASCUS FURTHER CONTRIBUTING TO FOOD INSECURITY AND SKY ROCKETING UNEMPLOYMENT GLEICK 2014 THE UNDERLYING POLITICAL GRIEVANCES IN THESE URBAN AREAS ALREADY HAMSTRUNG BY 1 5 MILLION IRAQI REFUGEES FROM PREVIOUS YEARS WERE ADDITIONALLY AGGRAVATED BY THIS DISENFRANCHISED POPULATION TURNING THE SPRING 2011 STREET PROTESTS INTO AN ALL OUT CIVIL WAR THAT KILLED AROUND 500 000 PEO PLE DISPLACED ANOTHER 10 11 MILLION PEOPLE AND ULTIMATELY MADE SURE 5 5 MILLION MORE DECIDED TO SEEK REFUGEE BALSARI ET AL 2020 FROM TODAY S PERSPECTIVE WE CAN SEE HOW CLIMATIC AND SOCIOECONOMIC STRESSORS TRIGGERED A TURNING POINT AND FUELED A MASSIVE EXODUS OF FLEEING REFUGEES AND MIGRANTS FROM THE SAHEL AND MENA REGION TO EUROPE WITH OVER 1 MILLION MIGRANTS AND 1 2 MILLION ASYLUM APPLICATIONS IN 2015 ALONE DAGI 2017 THE SUMMER 2021 HEATWAVE WHEN EUROPE WAS HIT HARD BY A SERIES OF EXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS DEVASTATING FLOODS IN GERMANY AND BELGIUM OR WILDFIRES IN TURKEY GREECE AND FRANCE WAS A STARK REMINDER THAT HUMAN IMPACT ON THE EARTH S CLIMATE HAS NOT ONLY INDIRECT CONSEQUENCES IN TRIGGERING CLIMATE RELATED WARS IN DISTANT LANDS AND SUBSEQUENT WAVES OF MIGRANTS AND REFUGEE SEEKERS TO CONTINENTAL EUROPE BUT ALSO HOW SUCH CHANGES AFFECT THE EVERYDAY LIVES OF AVERAGE EUROPEANS ONE ASPECT OF THE EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IS THE FORESTS MAINLY DUE TO THE LONG LIFE SPANS OF TREES NOT ALLOWING FOR A QUICK ADAPTATION TO STRUCTURAL CHANGES LINDNER ET AL 2010 IT IS WELL KNOWN THAT CHANGES IN CLIMATE AFFECT ABIOTIC DISTURBANCES SUCH AS THE FREQUENCY AND INTENSITY OF FIRES AND STORMS AS WELL AS BIOTIC DISTURBANCES SUCH AS OUTBREAKS OF PESTS AND DISEASES SEVERAL AUTHORS HAVE ARGUED THAT THE OCCURRENCE OF EXOTHERMIC ORGANISMS E G HER BIVOROUS INSECTS AND FUNGAL DISEASES IS STRONGLY MODIFIED BY CLIMATE CONDITIONS E G DESPREZ LOUSTAU ET AL 2007 THIS IN TURN MAY AFFECT THE ABILITY OF FORESTS TO PROVIDE ECONOMIC SOCIAL AND OTHER ECOLOGICAL SERVICES PARTICULARLY IN THE AREAS OF TIMBER PRODUCTION NON TIMBER FOREST PRODUCTS E G BERRIES AND MUSHROOMS CAR BON SEQUESTRATION BIODIVERSITY RECREATION AND CONSERVATION LINDNER ET AL 2010 WHAT A CLIMATE CHANGE INDUCED EPIDEMIC OF EXOTHERMIC ORGANISMS CAN DO MIGHT BE EXEMPLIFIED BY BARK BEETLE OUTBREAKS SUCH AS THOSE OCCURRING IN EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES FOR INSTANCE IN TATRA MOUNTAIN IN THE SLOVAK REPUBLIC IT HAS LONG BEEN EMPHASIZED THAT EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES ARE NOT ADEQUATELY PREPARED FOR INTENSE BARK BEETLE OUTBREAKS IN THE WAKE OF CLIMATE CHANGE WHICH MAY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WITH SPEED AND VIOLENCE 2