ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE
1 HISTORICAL VARIATIONS IN THE EARTH'S CLIMATE 1 11 HISTORICAL TEMPERATURES 1 USE OF PROXIES TO ESTIMATE HISTORICAL TEMPERATURES 1 1111 TREE RINGS 2 1112 ICE CORES 4 OCEAN AND STREAM SEDIMENTS 6 1114 POLLEN 6 BOREHOLES 6 CORALS 8 112 PROXIES AND CLIMATE 9 1121 PROCESSING PROXY DATA 9 1122 CHALLENGES IN USING PROXIES 10 12 ICE AGES AND INTERGLACIAL PERIODS 12 121 THE PLEISTOCENE 122 THE LAST ICE AGE 14 123 PROPOSED EXPLANATIONS FOR ICE AGES 18 1231 VARIATIONS IN THE EARTH'S ORBIT AND ICE AGES 18 1232 COSMOS THEORY 23 1233 ATLANTIC OCEAN CIRCULATION VARIATION 24 124 SUDDEN CLIMATE CHANGES 25 1241 MECHANISMS BEHIND SUDDEN CLIMATE TRANSITIONS 27 1242 NORTH ATLANTIC CIRCULATION AS A TRIGGER OR AN AMPLIFIER IN RAPID CLIMATE CHANGES 1243 CARBON DIOXIDE AS A FEEDBACK IN SUDDEN CHANGES 31 VEGETATION 1244 SURFACE REFLECTIVITY (ALBEDO) OF ICE, SNOW, AND 31 32 13 HOLOCENE TEMPERATURE HISTORY 27 131 INTRODUCTION 32 132 GLACIAL SEDIMENTS 33 133 PLANT POLLEN PROXIES 34 37 134 BOREHOLE MEASUREMENTS 38 135 OCEAN SEDIMENT CORES 38 136 OTHER HOLOCENE RESULTS 2 TEMPERATURES IN THE PAST MILLENNIUM 21 THE LITTLE ICE AGE AND THE MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD 41 41 211 ANECDOTAL INFERENCES ON THE MWP AND THE LIA 44 212 THE MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD 46 2121 CLIMATE MODELS FOR THE MWP: EFFECTS OF CHANGES IN LAND USE 46 2122 PROXY ANALYSIS 50 213 THE LITTLE ICE AGE 55 214 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SARGASSO SEA 60 215 OTHER PROXY STUDIES 60 2151 CHINA 60 2152 BOREHOLE MEASUREMENTS 64 2153 ARCTIC ENVIRONMENT CHANGE OF THE LAST FOUR CEN-TURIES 66 2154 ICELAND PERSPECTIVE 68 22 AVERAGE GLOBAL AND HEMISPHERIC TEMPERATURES IN THE PAST MILLEN-NIUM 69 69 221 THE "MBH" MODEL 73 OTHER RECONSTRUCTIONS OF HISTORICAL TEMPERATURE 76 223 CRITICISMS OF THE MBH MODEL 76 79 2231 MCINTYRE AND MCKITRICK 2232 BÜRGER AND CUBASCH 83 2233 THE WEGMAN REPORT 81 84 2234 ESPER ET AL 2235 SOON AND BALIUNAS 86 2236 ZORITA AND VON STORCH 85 2237 THE PALEO-CLIMATE GROUP 90 23 THE BLOGS 2238 HOW RELIABLE ARE PROXY METHODS? 88 90 231 CLIMATE AUDIT BLOG 93 232 REAL CLIMATE BLOG 96 24 CONCLUSIONS ON MILLENNIUM TEMPERATURE HISTORY 3 TEMPERATURES IN THE PAST CENTURY 31 NEAR-SURFACE MEASUREMENTS 101 311 METEOROLOGICAL DATA SETS 101 312 PROBLEMS WITH TEMPERATURE DATA 101 313 DEVIATIONS FROM THE MEAN 104 107 314 UTILITY OF A SINGLE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE 108 32 MEASURED EARTH, REGIONAL, AND LOCAL TEMPERATURES 110 321 US TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENTS 110 322 GLOBAL AND HEMISPHERIC TEMPERATURES 110 323 ANTARCTIC AND ARCTIC TEMPERATURES 114 3231 ANTARCTIC TEMPERATURES 116 3232 ARCTIC TEMPERATURES 118 324 THE NH TEMPERATURE DIP, 1940-1978: EFFECT OF AEROSOLS 122 325 ADEQUACY OF THE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE NETWORK 126 326 TROPOSPHERE TEMPERATURES 134 327 DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE 138 328 RUMINATIONS OF BOB FOSTER 140 329 EUROPEAN TEMPERATURES: 1751-1995 141 4 VARIABILITY OF THE SUN 143 143 41 SOLAR IRRADIANCE 143 411 INTRODUCTION 145 412 MEASUREMENTS OF TSI IN SPACE SINCE 1978 146 413 SHORT-TERM TSI MODELS 147 414 LONG-TERM TSI MODELS 147 42 ASPECTS OF SOLAR VARIABILITY 147 421 THE SOLAR CYCLE 148 422 SUNSPOTS 148 423 FACULAE 149 424 SUNSPOT INDICES 151 425 ESTIMATION OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY FROM PROXIES 153 426 DIAMETER OF THE SUN 153 427 INDICES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY 154 428 EFFECT OF THE SUN-EARTH DISTANCE 155 43 THE MAUNDER MINIMUM; JOHN EDDY'S STUDY 155 431 HISTORICAL TELESCOPE OBSERVATIONS OF SUNSPOTS 155 432 HISTORICAL RECORDS OF AURORAE 156 433 HISTORICAL VISUAL OBSERVATIONS OF SUNSPOTS 156 435 THE SOLAR CORONA 434 CARBON IN TREE RINGS 157 436 BECKMAN AND MAHONEY ON EDDY'S WORK 157 437 EDDY'S CONCLUSIONS 158 44 RECONSTRUCTING TOTAL SOLAR IRRADIANCE (TSI) IN THE PAST 159 441 RECONSTRUCTIONS BASED ON SUNSPOTS, SOLAR CYCLES, AND SOLAR ACTIVITY 159