ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE: INEVITABLE SURPRISES
CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY IMPROVE THE FUNDAMENTAL KNOWLEDGE BASE RELATED TO ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE, IMPROVE MODELING FOCUSED ON ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE, IMPROVE PALEOCLIMATIC DATA RELATED TO ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE, IMPROVE STATISTICAL APPROACHES, INVESTIGATE “NO-REGRETS” STRATEGIES TO REDUCE VULNERABILITY, INTRODUCTION TO ABRUPT CHANGES IN THE EARTH’S CLIMATE DEFINITION OF ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE, SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE, PROCESSES, AND CONSEQUENCES FOR SOCIETY AND ECOSYSTEMS, THE CHARGE TO THE COMMITTEE, EVIDENCE OF ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE INTERPRETATION OF PAST CLIMATIC CONDITIONS FROM PROXY RECORDS, THE YOUNGER DRYAS AS AN EXAMPLE OF ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE, ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGES BEFORE THE YOUNGER DRYAS EVENT, EEMIAN RAPID CLIMATE CHANGE, HOLOCENE RAPID CLIMATE CHANGE, RAPID CLIMATE CHANGES IN THE INSTRUMENTAL PERIOD, PATTERNS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY, TRENDS RECORDED INSTRUMENTALLY, SYNOPSIS OF OBSERVATIONS, PROCESSES THAT CAUSE ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE AN OVERVIEW OF MECHANISMS, ATMOSPHERE, ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE AND THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION, GLOBAL WARMING AS A POSSIBLE TRIGGER FOR ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE CHANGES IN NORTH ATLANTIC THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION, LIMITED PREDICTABILITY CLOSE TO AN INSTABILITY, CHANGES IN NATURAL MODES OF THE ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN SYSTEM, POSSIBLE FUTURE ABRUPT CHANGES IN THE HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE, ICE SHEET CHANGES, OUTLOOK, ECONOMIC AND ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE RECENT SCIENTIFIC STUDIES IN THE ECOLOGICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCES, SECTORAL APPROACHES, MODELING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FINAL THOUGHTS, REFERENCES