OIL EXPLORATION: BASIN ANALYSIS AND ECONOMICS

By EVELYN PEREZ

CONTENTS 1 EAST ASIAN ENERGY SUPPLY DEMAND AND 1 COOPERATION OUTLOOK 2 THE POTENTIAL FOR ENERGY CONSERVATION IN EAST ASIA 49 3 ASIAN ENERGY PARTNERSHIP OPPORTUNITIES AND OBSTACLES 87 4 ENERGY CONSERVATION POLICY DEVELOPMENT IN BRUNEI 119 5 ENERGY CONSERVATION POLICY DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA 143 6 ENERGY CONSERVATION POLICY DEVELOPMENT IN INDONESIA 161 7 ENERGY CONSERVATION POLICY DEVELOPMENT IN MALAYSIA 179 8 ENERGY CONSERVATION POLICY DEVELOPMENT IN KOREA 209 9 ENERGY CONSERVATION POLICY DEVELOPMENT IN JAPAN 233 10 ENERGY CONSERVATION POLICY DEVELOPMENT 253 IN THE PHILIPPINES 11 ENERGY CONSERVATION POLICY DEVELOPMENT IN SINGAPORE 279 12 ENERGY CONSERVATION POLICY DEVELOPMENT IN THAILAND 309 13 ENERGY CONSERVATION POLICY DEVELOPMENT IN VIETNAM 355 CHAPTER 1 EAST ASIAN ENERGY SUPPLY DEMAND AND COOPERATION OUTLOOK INTRODUCTION THE 21ST CENTURY IS BEING HAILED AS THE ASIAN CENTURY EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA HAVE LONG SINCE TAKEN OFF AND MATURED ECONOMICALLY COMMERCIALLY AND CULTURALLY AND MANY BELIEVE IT IS NOW ASIA S TURN THOUGH THE ECONOMIES OF JAPAN KOREA AND SINGAPORE ARE NOW MATURE THE REST OF ASIA CAN BE CATEGORISED AS BEING IN EITHER THE PRE TAKEOFF OR TAKEOFF STAGES THE FOCUS OF THIS STUDY IS ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN THE ASEAN 3 REGION I E THE TEN ASEAN MEMBER COUNTRIES PLUS CHINA JAPAN AND KOREA OVER THE NEXT 15 YEARS TO 2020 ITS PURPOSE IS TO LAY AN INFORMATION FOUNDATION FOR THE SUBSEQUENT CHAPTERS OF THIS BOOK IT IS CONCERNED PRIMARILY WITH THE AMOUNTS AND TYPES OF ENERGY CON SUMED IN THE REGION AS THIS REGION IS AND WILL INCREASINGLY HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON GLOBAL ENERGY FLOWS IT IS USEFUL TO PROVIDE A CONCISE OVERVIEW OF THE QUANTITIES AND TYPES OF ENERGY AVAILABLE IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA FOR 1 CONSUMPTION HOWEVER ANY STUDY SUCH AS THIS WHICH ATTEMPTS TO COMPARE SO MANY COUNTRIES IS FRAUGHT WITH DATA PROBLEMS NEEDLESS TO SAY THERE ARE ENORMOUS HISTORICAL CULTURAL POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC DIFFERENCES AMONG THESE COUNTRIES AND THE ANALYST IS FACED WITH A BEWILDERING ARRAY OF NON COMPATIBLE DATA WHICH IS OF UNEVEN QUALITY UNITS OF MEASUREMENT AND CURRENTNESS EVEN FOR ONE COUNTRY ALONE THERE CAN BE LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE VARIOUS REPORTING SOURCES 1 BESIDES DATA PROBLEMS IS THE REALITY THAT SOME COUNTRIES DO NOT WANT TO REVEAL THE FULL EXTENT OF THEIR ENERGY RESOURCES LEST THEY BE PUT UNDER PRESSURE TO SHARE THESE WITH NEIGHBOURING COUNTRIES AT SUBSIDISED RATES OTHER PROBLEMS ARE THE VARIOUS SOURCES DEFINITION OF ASIA SOME SOURCES INCLUDE INDIA OTHERS INCLUDE MONGOLIA ETC MOREOVER THE INCLUSION OF CHINA OBVIOUSLY SKEWS THE DATA UNLESS LOOKED AT SEPARATELY THE SPECTACULAR GROWTH WHICH HAS OCCURRED IN THE REST OF THE REGION LOOKS PALTRY BY COMPARISON 2 TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION TEC BEFORE LOOKING AT WHAT THE FUTURE MAY HOLD FOR THIS REGION IN TERMS OF ENERGY DEMAND AND SUPPLY IT IS USEFUL TO LOOK BRIEFLY AT WHAT HAS OCCURRED IN RECENT YEARS TABLE 1 CLEARLY SHOWS HOW ASEAN 3 S ENERGY CONSUMPTION GROWTH RATES HAVE BEEN MUCH HIGHER THAN THOSE OF THE WORLD AS A WHOLE SINCE 1980 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION AS A WHOLE GREW AT AN AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF 6 0 PER CENT IN ASEAN 3 1 THE MAIN SOURCES FOR THIS PAPER WERE THE WEBSITES MAINTAINED BY THE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY IEA AT HTTP WWW IEA ORG TEXTBASE STATS INDEX ASP ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION EIA AT HTTP WWW EIA DOE GOV EMEU INTERNATIONAL CONTENTS HTML ASEAN CENTRE FOR ENERGY AT HTTP WWW ASEANENERGY ORG ASIA PACIFIC ENERGY RESEARCH CENTRE APERC AT HTTP WWW IEEJ OR JP APERC BRITISH PETROLEUM BP AT HTTP WWW BP COM INSTITUTE OF ENERGY ECONOMICS AT HTTP WWW HTTP ENEKEN IEEJ OR JP EN AND THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR NORTHEAST ASIA AT HTTP WWW ERINA OR JP 2 SPECIFIC DATA FOR HONG KONG TAIWAN AND MACAU WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS STUDY THOUGH IDEALLY THEY SHOULD HAVE BEEN 2 BETWEEN 1980 AND 2003 COMPARED TO 1 7 PER CENT WORLDWIDE WHILE THE RESPECTIVE PER CAPITA FIGURES WERE 4 1 AND 0 4 PER CENT 3 LOOKING AT TEC GROWTH IN THE INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES SEE TABLE 2 AND FIGURE 1 WE SEE THAT LAOS AND VIETNAM S GROWTH AVERAGING 17 PER CENT AND 10 PER CENT RESPECTIVELY WERE FAR ABOVE THE REST THE MAIN REASON FOR SUCH HIGH GROWTH IN BOTH CASES IS THE FACT THAT ENERGY CONSUMPTION LEVELS PRIOR TO THE DECADE UNDER EXAMINATION HERE WERE EXTREMELY LOW SOME MAY ARGUE THAT IT WOULD BE MORE USEFUL TO LOOK AT ONLY THE PAST FIVE YEARS BUT WE DECIDED THAT A LONGER TREND WOULD ABSORB THE EFFECTS OF SOME EXOGENOUS FACTORS WHICH HAVE INFLUENCED ECONOMIC GROWTH IN RECENT YEARS AS FOR TEC FIGURES AND THE TOTALS FOR EACH TYPE OF ENERGY CHINA JAPAN AND KOREA ARE OF COURSE AT THE TOP THE LIST WHILE BRUNEI CAMBODIA AND LAOS ARE AT THE BOTTOM DUE TO THEIR POPULATION SIZE AND OR ECONOMIC STRUCTURE SEE TABLE 3 AS MENTIONED IN THE INTRODUCTION THE INCLUSION OF CHINA SKEWS THE DATA CONSIDERABLY IT IS THE WORLD S SECOND LARGEST ENERGY CON SUMER IN THE WORLD AFTER THE US AND THE THIRD LARGEST ENERGY PRODUCER AFTER THE US AND RUSSIA ENERGY CONSUMPTION GROWTH WITHIN THE COUN TRY HOWEVER IS HIGHLY UNEVEN THERE ARE RURAL REGIONS AS IN MOST OF THE OTHER COUNTRIES IN THIS STUDY WHICH HAVE NO ELECTRICITY AT ALL 3 THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ASEAN S AND THE WORLD S GROWTH IS ESPECIALLY LARGE FOR GAS CONSUMPTION 17 2 PER CENT AVERAGE GROWTH VERSUS 1 9 PER CENT WORLDWIDE DUE TO THE INTRODUCTION OF THE PHILIPPINES MALAMPAYA GAS PRODUCTION IN LATE 2001 TABLE 1 COMPARISON BETWEEN ASIAN AND WORLD AVERAGE ANNUAL ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH 1980 2003 ASEAN 3 WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY 6 0 1 7 OIL 4 4 1 6 GAS 17 2 1 9 COAL 6 7 0 9 ELECTRICITY 10 6 3 0 PER CAPITA PRIMARY ENERGY 4 1 0 4 SOURCE CALCULATED FROM EIA WEBSITE 3