INTRODUCTION TO GEOLOGY
CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION BACKGROUND OBJECTIVES AN OUTLINE OF THE EVALUATION PROCEDURE SCOPE 2 EVALUATION MODELS GEOLOGICAL MODELS AND PLAY DEFI NITIONS STATISTICAL MODELS CONCEPTS USED THE NATURE OF GEOLOGICAL POPULATIONS THE BEAVERHILL LAKE PLAY OUTLIERS CORRELATION BETWEEN RANDOM VARIABLES MIXED POPULATIONS 3 ESTIMATING MATURE PLAYS THE SUPERPOPULATION MODEL LOGNORMAL DISCOVERY PROCESS MODEL NONPARAMETRIC DISCOVERY PROCESS MODEL ESTIMATING POOL-SIZE DISTRIBUTION FOR THE BEAVERHILL LAKE PLAY LOGNORMAL/NONPARAMETRIC–POISSON DISCOVERY PROCESS MODEL PREVIOUS WORK THE BDSCV MODEL THE KEG RIVER SHELF REMARKS MULTIVARIATE DISCOVERY PROCESS MODEL BIVARIATE LOGNORMAL DISTRIBUTION FOR OIL AND GAS POOLS ESTIMATING THE COVARIANCE MATRIX POOL-SIZE-BY-RANK BY ORDER STATISTICS INTERPRETATIONS THE MATCHING PROCESS: OPERATION POOL SIZES CONDITIONAL ON POOL RANK DISTRIBUTION OF THE RATIO OF TWO POOLS PLAY RESOURCE AND POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION PLAY RESOURCE DISTRIBUTION PLAY POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION EXPECTED PLAY POTENTIAL PROBABLE PLAY POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION 4 MORE ABOUT DISCOVERY PROCESS MODELS VALIDATION STUDY BY SIMULATION VALIDATION PROCEDURE ESTIMATES FOR THE N VALUE LOGNORMAL POPULATION WEIBULL POPULATION PARETO POPULATION MIXED POPULATION OF TWO LOGNORMAL POPULATIONS MIXED POPULATION OF LOGNORMAL, WEIBULL, AND PARETO POPULATIONS ESTIMATION OF EXPLORATION EFFI CIENCY POOL-SIZE-BY-RANK REDUCTION OF UNCERTAINTY VALIDATION BY RETROSPECTIVE STUDY JUMPING POUND RUNDLE GAS PLAY SWAN HILLS SHELF MARGIN GAS AND LEDUC ISOLATED REEF OIL PLAYS IMPACT OF NONPRODUCTIVE AND NONCOMMERCIAL POOLS IMPACT OF A NONPRODUCTIVE TRAP IMPACT OF MISSING POOLS TESTING THE ADEQUACY OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS THE PROCEDURE INTERPRETATION LONG OR SHORT TAILS AT BOTH ENDS SYMMETRY PLATEAUS PLAYS FROM WORLDWIDE BASINS POOL-SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF A BASIN JUSTIFI CATIONS FOR USING A LOGNORMAL DISTRIBUTION EVIDENCE FROM THE Q–Q PLOTS APPROXIMATION OF A LOGNORMAL DISTRIBUTION TO GEOLOGICAL RANDOM VARIABLES ADVANTAGES OF USING A LOGNORMAL DISTRIBUTION ESTIMATION ERROR RESULTING FROM LOGNORMAL DISTRIBUTION APPROXIMATION 5 EVALUATING CONCEPTUAL PLAYS GEOLOGICAL FACTORS EXPLORATION RISK METHODS FOR ESTIMATING MARGINAL PROBABILITY PLAY-LEVEL GEOLOGICAL FACTOR PROSPECT-LEVEL GEOLOGICAL FACTOR MARGINAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION DEPENDENCE IN PROSPECT-LEVEL GEOLOGICAL FACTORS THE EAST COAST PLAY POOL-SIZE DISTRIBUTION THE MONTE CARLO METHOD THE LOGNORMAL APPROXIMATION EXAMPLES ESTIMATING RESOURCES NUMBER-OF-PROSPECTS DISTRIBUTION NUMBER-OF-POOLS DISTRIBUTION GENERATION OF RESERVOIR PARAMETERS CONSTRUCTING PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS 6 ESTIMATION UPDATE AND FEEDBACK PROCEDURES PROCEDURE FOR ESTIMATING MATURE PLAYS STEP 1: FORMULATING A PLAY DEFI NITION AND ITS GEOGRAPHIC BOUNDARY STEP 2: COMPILING PLAY DATA STEP 3: VALIDATING MIXED POPULATIONS OR LOGNORMAL ASSUMPTIONS STEP 4: ESTIMATING POOL-SIZE DISTRIBUTION STEP 5: DETERMINING AN APPROPRIATE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION STEP 6: ESTIMATING POOL-SIZE-BY-RANK STEP 7: ESTIMATING EXPECTED AND PROBABLE PLAY POTENTIAL STEP 8: COMPUTING PLAY RESOURCE DISTRIBUTION PROCEDURE FOR ESTIMATING CONCEPTUAL PLAYS CONCEPTUAL PLAYS FROM A MATURE BASIN CONCEPTUAL PLAYS FROM A FRONTIER BASIN STEP 1: FORMULATING PLAY DEFI NITIONS STEP 2: ESTIMATING POOL-SIZE DISTRIBUTION STEP 3: ESTIMATING NUMBER-OF-POOLS DISTRIBUTION STEP 4: ESTIMATING INDIVIDUAL POOL-SIZE DISTRIBUTION STEP 5: ESTIMATING PLAY RESOURCE DISTRIBUTION STEP 6: ESTIMATING OTHER RESERVOIR PARAMETERS UPDATE PROCEDURE FEEDBACK PROCEDURE CAN WE PREDICT THE CURRENT SITUATION? HAS THE LARGEST POOL BEEN DISCOVERED? POOL SIZE CONDITIONAL ON PLAY RESOURCE 7 OTHER ASSESSMENT METHODS—AN OVERVIEW GEOLOGICAL APPROACH VOLUMETRIC YIELD BY ANALOGOUS BASIN METHOD BASIN CLASSIFI CATION METHOD GEOCHEMICAL APPROACHES PETROLEUM SYSTEM OR GEOCHEMICAL MASS BALANCE METHOD BURIAL AND THERMAL HISTORY MODELING STATISTICAL APPROACHES FINITE POPULATION METHODS THE ARPS AND ROBERTS METHOD BICKEL, NAIR, AND WANG’S METHOD KAUFMAN’S ANCHORED METHOD CHEN AND SINDING–LARSEN’S GEO-ANCHORED METHOD SUPERPOPULATION METHODS USGS LOG-GEOMETRIC METHOD THE CREAMING METHOD THE LONG METHOD THE REGRESSION METHOD THE FRACTAL METHOD 8 CONCLUDING REMARKS