BACKGROUND ISSUE PAPERS ON THE LIBBY REGULATING DAM AND RESERVOIR

By D. KAORR

CONTENTS WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT: AN OVERVIEW INTRODUCTION PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT ISSUES: SOME CASE STUDIES KURDS SEEK LAND, TURKS WANT WATER SHARING THE WATER OF THE JORDAN RIVER BASIN: IS THERE A WAY? MENDING THE “MIGHTY AND MUDDY” MISSOURI THE ENDANGERED SALMON WETLAND PRESERVATION: A GROUNDSWELL OF SUPPORT AND CRITICISM LAKE SOURCE COOLING: AID TO ENVIRONMENT, OR THREAT TO LAKE? MANAGING WATER IN THE FLORIDA EVERGLADES RESTORATION OF EUROPE’S RIVERS AND SEAS FLOOD MANAGEMENT ON THE SENEGAL RIVER NILE BASIN COUNTRIES STRIVING TO SHARE ITS BENEFITS SHRINKING GLACIERS AT TOP OF THE WORLD CHINA, A THIRSTY NATION MANAGING SEDIMENT IN CHINA’S YELLOW RIVER DAMMING THE MEKONG (S E ASIA), THE AMAZON, AND THE CONGO SO, WHY PLAN, WHY MANAGE? TOO LITTLE WATER TOO MUCH WATER TOO POLLUTED TOO EXPENSIVE ECOSYSTEM TOO DEGRADED OTHER PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT ISSUES SYSTEM PLANNING SCALES SPATIAL SCALES FOR PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT TEMPORAL SCALES FOR PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT APPROACHES TOP-DOWN PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT BOTTOM-UP PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT WATER SECURITY AND THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS (SDGS) PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT ASPECTS PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT CHARACTERISTICS INTEGRATED POLICIES AND DEVELOPMENT PLANS SUSTAINABILITY MEETING THE PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT CHALLENGES—A SUMMARY REFERENCES EXERCISES WATER RESOURCE SYSTEMS MODELING: ITS ROLE IN PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT MODELING WATER RESOURCE SYSTEMS AN EXAMPLE MODELING APPROACH CHARACTERISTICS OF PROBLEMS TO BE MODELED CHALLENGES INVOLVING MODELING CHALLENGES OF PLANNERS AND MANAGERS CHALLENGES OF MODELERS CHALLENGES OF APPLYING MODELS IN PRACTICE EVALUATING MODELING SUCCESS DEVELOPMENTS IN MODELING TECHNOLOGY ALGORITHMS INTERACTIVE MODEL-BUILDING ENVIRONMENTS OPEN MODELING SYSTEMS CONCLUSIONS MODELS FOR IDENTIFYING AND EVALUATING ALTERNATIVES MODEL COMPONENTS PLAN FORMULATION AND SELECTION PLAN FORMULATION PLAN SELECTION CONCEPTUAL MODEL DEVELOPMENT SIMULATION AND OPTIMIZATION SIMULATING A SIMPLE WATER RESOURCES SYSTEM DEFINING WHAT TO SIMULATE SIMULATION VERSUS OPTIMIZATION REFERENCE AN INTRODUCTION TO OPTIMIZATION MODELS AND METHODS COMPARING TIME STREAMS OF ECONOMIC BENEFITS AND COSTS INTEREST RATES EQUIVALENT PRESENT VALUE EQUIVALENT ANNUAL VALUE NONLINEAR OPTIMIZATION MODELS AND SOLUTION PROCEDURES SOLUTION USING CALCULUS SOLUTION USING HILL CLIMBING SOLUTION USING LAGRANGE MULTIPLIERS DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING NETWORKS AND RECURSIVE EQUATIONS BACKWARD-MOVING SOLUTION PROCEDURE FORWARD-MOVING SOLUTION PROCEDURE NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS DIMENSIONALITY PRINCIPLE OF OPTIMALITY ADDITIONAL APPLICATIONS GENERAL COMMENTS ON DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING LINEAR PROGRAMMING RESERVOIR STORAGE CAPACITY-YIELD MODELS A WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT PROBLEM A GROUNDWATER SUPPLY EXAMPLE A REVIEW OF LINEARIZATION METHODS A BRIEF REVIEW DATA-FITTING, EVOLUTIONARY, AND QUALITATIVE MODELING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS THE APPROACH AN EXAMPLE EVOLUTIONARY ALGORITHMS GENETIC ALGORITHMS EXAMPLE ITERATIONS DIFFERENTIAL EVOLUTION COVARIANCE MATRIX ADAPTATION EVOLUTION STRATEGY GENETIC PROGRAMMING QUALITATIVE FUNCTIONS AND MODELING LINGUISTIC FUNCTIONS MEMBERSHIP FUNCTIONS ILLUSTRATIONS OF QUALITATIVE MODELING AN INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY, STATISTICS, AND UNCERTAINTY PROBABILITY CONCEPTS AND METHODS RANDOM VARIABLES AND DISTRIBUTIONS EXPECTED VALUES QUANTILES, MOMENTS, AND THEIR ESTIMATORS L-MOMENTS AND THEIR ESTIMATORS DISTRIBUTIONS OF RANDOM EVENTS PARAMETER ESTIMATION MODEL ADEQUACY NORMAL AND LOGNORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS GAMMA DISTRIBUTIONS LOG-PEARSON TYPE 3 DISTRIBUTION GUMBEL AND GEV DISTRIBUTIONS L-MOMENT DIAGRAMS ANALYSIS OF CENSORED DATA REGIONALIZATION AND INDEX-FLOOD METHOD PARTIAL DURATION SERIES STOCHASTIC PROCESSES AND TIME SERIES DESCRIBING STOCHASTIC PROCESSES MARKOV PROCESSES AND MARKOV CHAINS PROPERTIES OF TIME SERIES STATISTICS SYNTHETIC STREAMFLOW GENERATION STREAMFLOW GENERATION MODELS A SIMPLE AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL REPRODUCING THE MARGINAL DISTRIBUTION MULTIVARIATE MODELS MULTISEASON, MULTISITE MODELS STOCHASTIC SIMULATION GENERATING RANDOM VARIABLES RIVER BASIN SIMULATION THE SIMULATION MODEL SIMULATION OF THE BASIN INTERPRETING SIMULATION OUTPUT MODELING UNCERTAINTY GENERATING VALUES FROM KNOWN PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS MONTE CARLO SIMULATION CHANCE CONSTRAINED MODELS MARKOV PROCESSES AND TRANSITION PROBABILITIES STOCHASTIC OPTIMIZATION PROBABILITIES OF DECISIONS A NUMERICAL EXAMPLE SUMMARY SYSTEM SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS ISSUES, CONCERNS, AND TERMINOLOGY VARIABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL OUTPUT NATURAL VARIABILITY KNOWLEDGE UNCERTAINTY DECISION UNCERTAINTY SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSES UNCERTAINTY ANALYSES SENSITIVITY ANALYSES PERFORMANCE INDICATOR UNCERTAINTIES PERFORMANCE MEASURE TARGET UNCERTAINTY DISTINGUISHING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PERFORMANCE INDICATOR DISTRIBUTIONS COMMUNICATING MODEL OUTPUT UNCERTAINTY PERFORMANCE CRITERIA INFORMED DECISION-MAKING PERFORMANCE CRITERIA AND GENERAL ALTERNATIVES CONSTRAINTS ON DECISIONS TRADEOFFS AMONG PERFORMANCE CRITERIA QUANTIFYING PERFORMANCE CRITERIA ECONOMIC CRITERIA ENVIRONMENTAL CRITERIA ECOLOGICAL CRITERIA SOCIAL CRITERIA MULTICRITERIA ANALYSES DOMINANCE THE WEIGHTING METHOD THE CONSTRAINT METHOD SATISFICING LEXICOGRAPHY INDIFFERENCE ANALYSIS GOAL ATTAINMENT GOAL PROGRAMMING INTERACTIVE METHODS PLAN SIMULATION AND EVALUATION STATISTICAL SUMMARIES OF PERFORMANCE CRITERIA RELIABILITY RESILIENCE VULNERABILITY WATER QUALITY MODELING AND PREDICTION ESTABLISHING AMBIENT WATER QUALITY STANDARDS WATER USE CRITERIA WATER QUALITY MODEL USE MODEL SELECTION CRITERIA MODEL CHAINS MODEL DATA MODELS OF WATER QUALITY PROCESSES MASS BALANCE PRINCIPLES STEADY-STATE MODELS DESIGN STREAMFLOWS FOR SETTING AND EVALUATING QUALITY STANDARDS TEMPERATURE SOURCES AND SINKS FIRST-ORDER CONSTITUENTS DISSOLVED OXYGEN NUTRIENTS AND EUTROPHICATION TOXIC CHEMICALS 10 4 10 SEDIMENTS 10 4 11 PROCESSES IN LAKES AND RESERVOIRS SIMULATION METHODS NUMERICAL ACCURACY TRADITIONAL APPROACH BACKTRACKING APPROACH MODEL UNCERTAINTY CONCLUSIONS—IMPLEMENTING A WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT POLICY RIVER BASIN MODELING MODEL TIME PERIODS STREAMFLOW ESTIMATION STREAMFLOW ROUTING LAKES AND RESERVOIRS ESTIMATING ACTIVE STORAGE CAPACITY RESERVOIR STORAGE-YIELD FUNCTIONS EVAPORATION LOSSES OVER- AND WITHIN-YEAR RESERVOIR STORAGE AND YIELDS DROUGHT AND FLOOD RISK REDUCTION DROUGHT PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT FLOOD PROTECTION AND DAMAGE REDUCTION HYDROELECTRIC POWER PRODUCTION WITHDRAWALS AND DIVERSIONS LAKE-BASED RECREATION MODEL SYNTHESIS PROJECT SCHEDULING URBAN WATER SYSTEMS WATER TREATMENT WATER DISTRIBUTION OPEN-CHANNEL NETWORKS PRESSURE PIPE NETWORKS WATER QUALITY WASTEWATER COLLECTION SEWER NETWORKS WASTEWATER TREATMENT URBAN DRAINAGE SYSTEMS RAINFALL RUNOFF SURFACE POLLUTANT LOADING AND WASHOFF WATER QUALITY IMPACTS GREEN URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE URBAN WATER SYSTEM MODELING OPTIMIZATION SIMULATION PROJECT PLANNING: PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER WATER MANAGEMENT CHALLENGES WATER RESOURCES SYSTEM COMPONENTS, FUNCTIONS, AND DECISIONS COMPONENTS FUNCTIONS GOALS, STRATEGIES, DECISIONS, AND SCENARIOS SYSTEMS APPROACHES TO WRS PLANNING AND DECISION MAKING CONCEPTUAL DESCRIPTION OF WRS CHARACTERISTICS OF THE NATURAL RESOURCES SYSTEM CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SOCIOECONOMIC SYSTEM CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ADMINISTRATIVE AND INSTITUTIONAL SYSTEM FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS AND IMPLEMENTATION STEP I—INCEPTION PHASE STEP II—SITUATION ANALYSIS STEP III—STRATEGY BUILDING STEPS IV AND V—ACTION PLANNING AND IMPLEMENTATION MAKING IT WORK STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT USING MODELS IN A PLANNING PROCESS