ADVANCES IN ECOLOGICAL RESEARCH: BIRDS AND CLIMATE CHANGE

By B. GAZAU

CONTENTS ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE DATES I SUMMARY II A BRIEF HISTORY III VARIATION OF ARRIVAL DATES DURING THE LAST 250 YEARS IV CURRENT DATA AND APPROACHES A TYPES AND QUALITY OF DATA V HOW IS EARLIER ARRIVAL ACHIEVED? VI STATISTICS VII CONFOUNDING FACTORS VIII OVERVIEW OF CHANGES OF TIMING IN THE LATTER PART OF THE 20TH CENTURY A ARRIVAL—TREND OF TIMING B ARRIVAL—RELATIONSHIP TO TEMPERATURE AND WEATHER SYSTEMS C DEPARTURE D LENGTH OF STAY IX CONSEQUENCE OF CHANGING TIMING X FUTURE WORK REFERENCES MIGRATORY FUELLING AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE I SUMMARY II INTRODUCTION III CHANGING STOPOVER HABITATS IV MIGRATORY FUELLING AND SUCCESSFUL MIGRATION V PLASTICITY IN MIGRATORY PERFORMANCE: DOES IT MATTER? VI ENERGY STORES AND MIGRATION PERFORMANCE VII OUTLOOK USING LARGE-SCALE DATA FROM RINGED BIRDS FOR THE INVESTIGATION OF EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MIGRATING BIRDS: PITFALLS AND PROSPECTS I SUMMARY III CHANGES IN MIGRATION BEHAVIOUR A TYPES OF CHANGES B CHANGES IN THE PRESENCE OF INDIVIDUALS AT DISTINCT TIMES C CHANGES IN RECOVERY DISTANCES D CHANGES IN RECOVERY LATITUDE E CHANGES IN RECOVERY DIRECTIONS F COMPARISON OF RESULTS AND METHODS IV IDENTI?CATION OF UNDERLYING FACTORS AND THE ROLE OF CLIMATE CHANGE BREEDING DATES AND REPRODUCTIVE PERFORMANCE I SUMMARY III CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE IV HOW DOES TEMPERATURE AFFECT THE TIMING OF REPRODUCTION? V CHANGES IN LAYING DATE AND REPRODUCTIVE PERFORMANCE VI THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON PARTICULAR SPECIES AND LOCATIONS VII WHAT CAUSES CHANGES IN TIMING OF BREEDING? VIII CONCLUSIONS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE LEADS TO MISTIMED AVIAN REPRODUCTION I SUMMARY III WHY GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE WILL LEAD TO REPRODUCTIVE MISTIMING A CHANGES IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF DECISION-MAKING B CHANGES IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF SELECTION C CHANGES IN SYNCHRONISATION IV CONSEQUENCES OF REPRODUCTIVE MISTIMING V ADAPTATIONS TO REPRODUCTIVE MISTIMING A RESPONSES OF INDIVIDUALS B POPULATION RESPONSES VI DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION OF LONG-TERM STUDIES INVESTIGATING RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE ¨ I SUMMARY III METHODOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS A CHOICE OF PHENOLOGICAL VARIABLES B CHOICE OF CLIMATE VARIABLES C CHOICE OF STATISTICAL MODELS D ACCOUNTING FOR VARIATION IN RECAPTURE PROBABILITIES E REPRESENTATIVENESS OF THE DATA IV INTERPRETATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS A PHENOTYPIC PLASTICITY B GENETIC CHANGE C MIGRATION V CONCLUSIONS AND FURTHER DIRECTIONS PHOTOPERIODIC RESPONSE AND THE ADAPTABILITY OF AVIAN LIFE CYCLES TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE I SUMMARY A GENERAL INTRODUCTION B PHOTOPERIODIC CONTROL OF AVIAN SEASONALITY C PHOTOPERIODIC RESPONSE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE III RESPONSES TO TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL VARIATION IN PHOTOPERIODIC CONDITIONS A PHOTOPERIODIC RESPONSE OF MIGRANTS TO CHANGES IN HATCHING DATE B PHOTOPERIODIC RESPONSE OF MIGRANTS TO NOVEL WINTERING RANGES C TROPICAL BIRDS AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR POLEWARD RANGE EXTENSION D BIRDS IN URBAN HABITATS AND THE EFFECT OF ARTI?CIAL LIGHT IV CONCLUSION MICROEVOLUTIONARY RESPONSE TO CLIMATIC CHANGE I SUMMARY III MICROEVOLUTIONARY CHANGE—MECHANISMS AND APPROACHES IV THE PROSPECTIVE IMPORTANCE OF DIFFERENT EVOLUTIONARY PROCESSES TO ADAPTIVE EVOLUTIONARY CHANGE A THE RESPONSE OF BIRD POPULATIONS TO NATURAL SELECTION B THE EFFECTS OF GENE FLOW C THE EFFECTS OF INBREEDING V CHANGES IN THE LEVEL OF GENETIC VARIATION VI ADAPTIVE CHANGES IN LAYING DATE IN RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE VII MICROEVOLUTIONARY RESPONSE OF MIGRATORY BEHAVIOUR A THE ADAPTABILITY OF MIGRATORY BEHAVIOUR: THE ROLE OF GENETIC VARIANCES AND COVARIANCES B CONSTRAINTS ON ADAPTIVE EVOLUTION OF MIGRATION C THE STUDY OF ADAPTIVE CHANGE IN MIGRATORY BIRDS D PHENOTYPIC CHANGES IN MIGRATORY BEHAVIOUR AND THEIR POTENTIAL CAUSES E MICROEVOLUTIONARY CHANGE IN MIGRATORY BEHAVIOUR VIII CONCLUSIONS AND OUTLOOK CLIMATE IN?UENCES ON AVIAN POPULATION DYNAMICS I SUMMARY III IMPACT OF WEATHER ON AVIAN POPULATION DYNAMICS IV MODELLING POPULATION DYNAMICAL CONSEQUENCES OF CHANGES IN CLIMATE A CHANGES IN MEAN DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES B CHANGES IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL STOCHASTICITY C TRENDS IN CLIMATE V DISCUSSION IMPORTANCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE RANGES, COMMUNITIES AND CONSERVATION OF BIRDS I SUMMARY III CHANGES IN CLIMATE IV HOW TO ANALYSE THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE V IN?UENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE RANGES OF BIRDS A CORRELATIONS OF CLIMATIC FACTORS AND RANGE BOUNDARIES B MODELLED CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR RANGE BOUNDARIES C OBSERVED CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR RANGE BOUNDARIES VI IN?UENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AVIAN COMMUNITIES A CORRELATIONS OF CLIMATIC FACTORS AND AVIAN COMMUNITIES B MODELLED CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR AVIAN COMMUNITIES C OBSERVED CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR AVIAN COMMUNITIES VII CONSERVATION CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE VIII CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS THE CHALLENGE OF FUTURE RESEARCH ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVIAN BIOLOGY I SUMMARY III THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE ON AVIAN BIOLOGY IV PHENOTYPIC PLASTICITY OR MICRO-EVOLUTIONARY CHANGE V COMPLEX ANNUAL CYCLES VI LATITUDINAL GRADIENTS AS MODEL SYSTEMS VII CONCLUSIONS ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE DATES I SUMMARY WE REVIEW THE CURRENT EVIDENCE THAT CHANGES IN ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE DATES OF MIGRATORY BIRDS HAVE TAKEN PLACE, AND THE RELATIONSHIP OF THESE CHANGES TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THE TIMING OF SPRING MIGRATION CLOSELY FOLLOWS WEATHER VARIATIONS THIS IS MORE EVIDENT AND/OR STRONGER IN SHORT-DISTANCE MIGRANTS THAN IN LONG-DISTANCE MIGRANTS, BUT THE LATTER HAVE ALSO RESPONDED TO CLIMATE CHANGE CHANGES OF SPRING ARRIVAL IN BIRDS DEPEND ON CLIMATE IMPACTS AT DIFFERENT LATITUDES ALONG THE ROUTE FROM WINTERING TO BREEDING AREAS THEREFORE, ALSO MIGRATORY STRATEGY, E G , STOPOVER TACTICS AND MIGRATORY ROUTES, MAY BE UNDER SELECTIVE FORCES DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE CHANGES IN BREEDING ENVIRONMENT DEPEND ON THE CLIMATE THERE THE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN EN ROUTE AND BREEDING TIME IMPACTS CAN INDUCE POOR ?T BETWEEN ANNUAL CYCLES OF BIRDS AND THEIR RESOURCES