ECONOMIC PROBLEMS AFFECTING POULTRY MARKETING
OVERVIEW CHAPTER 1 AGRICULTURE AND HUMAN CAPITAL IN ECONOMIC GROWTH: FARMERS, SCHOOLING AND NUTRITION CHAPTER 2 AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION CHAPTER 3 THE ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH IN CONTRIBUTING TO GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY AND POVERTY ALLEVIATION: THE CASE OF THE CGIAR CHAPTER 4 CONTRIBUTIONS OF NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH SYSTEMS TO CROP PRODUCTIVITY CHAPTER 5 LIVESTOCK PRODUCTIVITY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: AN ASSESSMENT CHAPTER 6 AGRICULTURAL INNOVATION: INVESTMENTS AND INCENTIVES CHAPTER 7 PRIVATE AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH CHAPTER 8 PLANT BIOTECHNOLOGY FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES CHAPTER 9 EFFICIENCY AND EQUITY EFFECTS OF LAND MARKETS CHAPTER 10 LABOR: DECISIONS, CONTRACTS AND ORGANIZATION CHAPTER 11 FERTILIZERS AND OTHER FARM CHEMICALS CHAPTER 12 AGRICULTURAL MECHANIZATION: ADOPTION PATTERNS AND ECONOMIC IMPACT CHAPTER 13 TRANSFORMATION OF MARKETS FOR AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES SINCE 1950: HOW HAS THINKING CHANGED? CONTENTS CHAPTER 14 RURAL FINANCIAL MARKETS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES CHAPTER 15 SOIL QUALITY AND AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT CHAPTER 16 THE ECONOMICS OF WATER, IRRIGATION, AND DEVELOPMENT CHAPTER 17 LAND USE: FOREST, AGRICULTURE, AND BIODIVERSITY COMPETITION CHAPTER 18 PAST CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE OVERVIEW THIS OVERVIEW OF VOLUME 3 OF THE HANDBOOK OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS IS ORGANIZED AS FOLLOWS: SECTION 1 OFFERS INSIGHTS FROM THE ECONOMIC GROWTH LITERATURE; SECTION 2 ADDRESSES THE GREEN REVOLUTION AND ITS IMPACT ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES; SECTION 3 ADDRESSES THE GENE REVOLUTION AND ITS LIMITED IMPACT ON DEVELOPING COUN- TRIES; SECTION 4 ADDRESSES RETURNS TO RESEARCH STUDIES; SECTION 5 DISCUSSES THE DECLINE IN AID EFFECTIVENESS FOR AGRICULTURE; SECTION 6 OFFERS COMMENTS ON THE 18 CHAPTERS COVERED IN VOLUME 3 1 INSIGHTS FROM ECONOMIC GROWTH THEORY ECONOMIC GROWTH THEORY CAN BE DIVIDED INTO EARLY GROWTH THEORY AND NEWER MODELS OF “ENDOGENOUS” GROWTH THE CHIEF INSIGHT FROM THE EARLY GROWTH THEORY [SOLOW (1956)] WAS THAT AN EF?CIENT ECONOMY LEADS TO A STEADY STATE SOLUTION WHERE PRODUCT PER WORKER DOES NOT GROW WITH- OUT INVENTION AND INNOVATION WHEN EXOGENOUS TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE IS INTRODUCED IN THESE MODELS, PRODUCT PER WORKER DOES GROW INVENTION AND INNOVATION ARE REQUIRED FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH JONES (2002) REPORTS A “MALTHUSIAN” EXTENSION OF EARLY GROWTH THEORY UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT CULTIVABLE LAND IS IN ?XED SUPPLY, JONES SHOWS THAT THE STEADY STATE SOLUTION IS GROWTH IN PRODUCT/WORKER = GROWTH IN TECHNOLOGY ??N, WHERE ? IS THE COEF?CIENT ON LAND IN THE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION FUNCTION, AND N IS THE RATE OF POPULATION GROWTH THIS CASTS GROWTH AS A RACE BETWEEN TECHNOLOGY AND POPU- LATION GROWTH THE DESIGNERS OF THE INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH CENTER (IARC) SYSTEM RECOGNIZED THAT TECHNOLOGICAL GAINS COULD OFFSET THE NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION GROWTH THE DESIGNERS OF THE IARC SYSTEM ALSO EVALUATED THE NATIONAL AGRI- CULTURAL RESEARCH SYSTEMS (NARS) IN PLACE IN THE 1950S AND CONCLUDED THAT THEY WERE NOT UP TO THE TASK OF MEETING THE CHALLENGE OF HIGH POPULATION GROWTH RATES DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODELS SHOWED THAT THE DECLINE IN DEATH RATES, PARTICULARLY CHILD MORTALITY RATES, ASSOCIATED WITH IMPROVED PUBLIC HEALTH AND IMMUNIZATION PRO- GRAMS WERE PRODUCING HIGH POPULATION GROWTH RATES IN THE 1950S AND 1960S BY 1 THIS WAS ?RST NOTED IN THE STUDY OF HYBRID MAIZE (CORN) BY ZVI GRILICHES (1957, 1958) GRILICHES NOTED THAT FARMERS IN ALABAMA DID NOT HAVE HYBRID MAIZE VARIETIES UNTIL 20 YEARS AFTER FARMERS IN IOWA HAD ACCESS TO HYBRID MAIZE IT WAS NOT UNTIL BREEDING PROGRAMS WERE ESTABLISHED IN ALABAMA, SELECTING VARIETIES FOR ALABAMA FARM CONDITIONS THAT FARMERS IN ALABAMA HAD ACCESS TO HYBRID MAIZE FARMERS IN WEST AFRICA DID NOT HAVE HYBRID MAIZE UNTIL 75 YEARS AFTER FARMERS IN IOWA HAD HYBRID MAIZE FARMERS IN CENTRAL AFRICA STILL DO NOT HAVE ACCESS TO HYBRID MAIZE ECONOMIC PROBLEMS AFFECTING POULTRY MARKETING IN CALIFORNIA 2 EVENSON AND KISLEV (1975) REPORT RELATIVE PRICE RATIOS OF 20 TO 1 FOR THE COST OF SCIENTISTS VS THE COST OF EXTENSION WORKERS THIS IS PARTLY RELATED TO THE RELATIVE PRICES OF EXTENSION PERSONNEL RELATIVE TO THE PRICE OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENTISTS 3 THE 11 CROPS WERE RICE, WHEAT, MAIZE, SORGHUM, MILLETS, BARLEY, GROUNDNUTS, LENTILS, BEANS, POTATOES AND CASSAVA [EVENSON AND GOLLIN (2003A, 2003B)] 4 CROP TFP GROWTH IS REPORTED IN AVILA AND EVENSON (FORTHCOMING) ECONOMIC PROBLEMS AFFECTING POULTRY MARKETING IN CALIFORNIA LT 2% 2–10% 10–20% 20–30% 30–40% 40–50% 50–65% GT 65% AFGHANISTAN BURKINA FASO BOLIVIA COLOMBIA CUBA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALGERIA ARGENTINA ANGOLA CAMBODIA BENIN COSTA RICA EGYPT IRAN BANGLADESH CHILE BURUNDI CHAD BOTSWANA ECUADOR MEXICO KENYA BRAZIL CHINA CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC EL SALVADOR CAMEROON GHANA NAMIBIA MOROCCO MYANMAR INDIA CONGO (B) GABON CONGO (Z) LAOS PARAGUAY NEPAL TUNISIA INDONESIA GAMBIA GUATEMALA CÔTE D’IVOIRE MADAGASCAR PERU THAILAND MALAYSIA GUINEA BISSAU GUINEA ETHIOPIA MALI SAUDI ARABIA TURKEY PAKISTAN MAURITANIA HAITI LIBERIA SIERRA LEONE SOUTH AFRICA PHILIPPINES MONGOLIA JAMAICA HONDURAS SYRIA SRI LANKA NIGER LIBYA MAURITIUS VIETNAM SOMALIA MALAWI NICARAGUA YEMEN MOZAMBIQUE NIGERIA PANAMA RWANDA SENEGAL SUDAN SWAZILAND TANZANIA TOGO URUGUAY UGANDA VENEZUELA ZAMBIA ZIMBABWE FIGURE 1 GREEN REVOLUTION CLUSTERS BY GRMV ADOPTION LEVEL ECONOMIC PROBLEMS AFFECTING POULTRY MARKETING IN CALIFORNIA TABLE GREEN REVOLUTION CLUSTER INDICATORS ECONOMIC INDICATORS CLUSTERS BY GRMV ADOPTION CROP VALUE PER HA (DOLLARS) FERTILIZER PER HECTARE (KG/HA) CROP TFP GROWTH (1961–2000) SCIENTISTS PER MILLION HA CROPLAND EXTENSION WORK PER MILLION HA INDUSTRIAL COMPETITIVENESS (UNIDO) LT 2% 2–10% 10–20% 20–30% 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% GT 65% SOCIAL INDICATORS CLUSTERS BY GRMV ADOPTION COUNTRIES IN CLASS POPULATION IN (MILLIONS) AVERAGE POPULA- TION (MILLIONS) BIRTH RATES CHILD MORTALITY RATES DIETARY ENERGY SUF?CIENCY GDP PER CAPITA ECONOMIC PROBLEMS AFFECTING POULTRY MARKETING IN CALIFORNIA THE SOCIAL INDICATORS SHOW THE FOLLOWING: 1 63% OF THE 4 65 BILLION PEOPLE LIVING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ARE LOCATED IN THE TEN COUNTRIES IN THE HIGHEST GREEN REVOLUTION CLUSTER 84% LIVE IN PERFORMING CLUSTERS COUNTRIES WITHOUT A GREEN REVOLUTION MAKE UP LESS THAN 2% OF THE POPULATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 2 THE AVERAGE POPULATION OF COUNTRIES IN 1960 AND 2000 RISES AS GRMV ADOPTION LEVELS RISE THIS SUGGESTS A STRONG BIAS AGAINST SMALL COUNTRIES 3 IN 1960, BIRTH RATES WERE SIMILAR ACROSS GRMV CLUSTERS BY 2000, BIRTH RATES HAD DECLINED IN ALL GRMV CLUSTERS, WITH HIGHEST DECLINES IN THE HIGHEST GRMV CLUS- TERS 4 CHILD MORTALITY RATES IN 1960 WERE SIMILAR IN MOST GRMV CLUSTERS BY 2000, THEY HAD DECLINED IN ALL GRMV CLUSTERS WITH HIGHEST DECLINES IN THE HIGHEST GRMV CLUSTERS IN THE TOP TWO GRMV CLUSTERS, CHILD MORTALITY RATES IN 2000 WERE ONLY 24% OF THEIR 1960 LEVELS 5 DIETARY ENERGY SUF?CIENCY (DES) WAS SIMILAR FOR ALL GRMV CLUSTERS IN 1960 BY 2000, IMPROVEMENTS WERE ACHIEVED IN ALL CLUSTERS WITH HIGHEST IMPROVEMENTS IN HIGHEST GRMV CLUSTERS DES IMPROVEMENT IS HIGHLY CORRELATED WITH CHILD MORTAL- ITY REDUCTION 6 GDP PER CAPITA (USING EXCHANGE RATE CONVERSION TO DOLLARS, ATLAS METHOD) WAS LOWEST IN COUNTRIES WITHOUT A GREEN REVOLUTION IN 1960 AND DID NOT IMPROVE IN 2000 GDP PER CAPITA FOR THE NEXT THREE GRMV CLUSTERS ROSE FROM 1960 TO BY 56% GDP PER CAPITA FOR THE HIGHEST FOUR GRMV CLUSTERS ROSE BY 140% FROM 1960 TO 2000 NARS PROGRAMS IN SPECI?C COUNTRIES BEAR THE ULTIMATE RESPONSIBILITY FOR FAILING TO DELIVER GRMVS TO THEIR FARMERS BUT IARC PROGRAMS ARE NOT IMMUNE FROM CRITICISM 5 NONE OF THE COUNTRIES WITHOUT A GREEN REVOLUTION REPORTED INVESTING IN R&D IN 1970 THE CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC REPORTED INDUSTRIAL R&D IN 1990 OF THE 18 COUNTRIES IN THE 2–10% CLUSTER, 5 REPORTED INDUSTRIAL R&D IN 1970, 12 REPORTED INDUSTRIAL R&D IN 1990 ECONOMIC PROBLEMS AFFECTING POULTRY MARKETING IN CALIFORNIA